A cold front has moved through the area this morning pushing all the precipitation to the East. The cold front is also doing a good job of clearing the sky and that means we have a good chance of seeing some sunshine this afternoon. Here is a look at the latest cloud forecast:
CLOUD FORECAST (TUESDAY 9AM)
CLOUD FORECAST (TUESDAY 12PM)
CLOUD FORECAST (TUESDAY 3PM)
BLOG ENTRY BY: PATRICK CRAWFORD (2-9 5:50AM)
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Snow will continue through the evening hours but it will remain very light. Additional accumulations will be less then one inch. Most locations will just see an additional coating of snow. Temperatures will be falling quickly in northwest Arkansas over the next several hours as the cold front moves into the area. The river valley will be near freezing until after midnight and then lows will end up in the low 20s.
Ross Ellet
Currently:
Snow has developed for the entire area. The heaviest of which is now from the river valley to the south. Temperatures have been key all day long. They are at or just above freezing for most of the locations around the area. Most of Benton, McDonald and Delaware counties are at 34 degrees. As a result snowfall is not accumulating very much in those areas and lighter snow totals are expected. The roads have been in decent shape today for most of the area due to the temperature hovering near the freezing mark. For the higher elevations temperatures have been closer to 30 degrees which has led to much more snow and slicker roads. Here is a look at your super doppler radar.
Later Tonight:
Moderate snow will continue for most of the area (heavy bursts of snow at times in the river valley) through 4pm. At that time lighter snow will develop and last through late evening. Snow will taper to flurries by midnight tonight. Temperatures will be at freezing for most of us by 4pm and then drop through the evening. In northwest Arkansas temperatures will be at 30 by 6pm, 28 by 9pm, 24 by midnight, 20 at 3am, and 15 by 6am tomorrow morning. In the river valley temperatures will be at 32 at 6pm, 32 by 9pm, 31 by midnight, 27 by 3am, and 23 by 6am tomorrow morning. Since the temperatures will fall quickly later tonight with more light snow, slick spots are expected on the roads overnight tonight.
Total Snow Accumulations:
Snow totals are going to vary widely across the area and will be elevation dependent. Areas in far northern Arkansas and Oklahoma will see 2-4″ of total accumulation, the rest of northwest Arkansas and the river valley will see around 4-6″. However, areas that have already picked up on several inches of snow and the higher elevations in extreme southeastern Washington county, northern Crawford, northern Franklin, and southern Madison Counties could see 6-8″ of snow. Some mountain tops above 1,800 feet could see over 8″ of snow. 1-3″ of snow accumulation is expected further south with locally higher amounts…especially for the higher elevations. Mena has already picked up on 2.5″ of snowfall.
Ross Ellet
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We are getting reports of light snow in NE OK and Washington County this morning and some areas of SW AR are seeing a good amount of sleet and rain. The regional radar continues to show more moisture to the South of the viewing area.
Now there could also be some wrap around moisture on the backside of the low pressure system for tonight and very early tomorrow morning. I’m worried about some possible ice on the roads as temperatures fall below freezing by Tuesday morning.
Here is a look at some snowfall totals we have received. We should continue to add a few more inches to these numbers.
BLOG ENTRY BY: PATRICK CRAWFORD (2-8 9:55AM)
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The light to moderate snow continues to fall this morning, but our Live Super Doppler Radar is continue to show some weakening just to the Southwest of the viewing area. Parts of the River Valley are reporting 1.5 to 2.5 inches of snowfall. So at the moment it seems like this light snow will continue for the next couple of hours and then we should get a small break before more snow and sleet moves into the area later today.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST (MONDAY 10AM)
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BLOG ENTRY BY: PATRICK CRAWFORD (2-8 2:50AM)
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Heavy snow is now falling from Fayetteville south to Fort Smith. This wave has developed out ahead of the main precipitation shield that will form tomorrow. Most locations will pick up around 1″ of snow tonight with this wave. Some isolated spots could see as much as 2″. Areas south of the river valley will see snow mixed with sleet at times with more of a rain/sleet mix further south. I-540 is becoming slick in spots with heavy snow is currently talking place through Crawford and Washington Counties. This band of precipitation will weaken over the next few hours before the main precipitation bands develop later tomorrow.
Ross Ellet
After careful review of the latest weather data we have updated the snow timeline for tomorrow. The expected snow totals remain unchanged. The heaviest of the snow will fall in northwest Arkansas with 4-8 inch snow totals common. The higher elevations in southern Washington and Madison county will likely see the higher end of those totals. The river valley will see around 2-4″, and less than 2″ further south. There is still a little uncertainty with the temperatures in the river valley later tomorrow. This could change these totals slightly if the temperatures are warmer or colder than expected.
Below are the snow timelines for both locations. Heavier snow will begin in northwest Arkansas around noon with 1-2″ expected by that time. Snow will end by midnight with a storm total of 4-8″. Rain will mix with snow after noon in the river valley, and change over to all snow by 4pm.
Ross Ellet
Follow us on twitter “4029weather”
The new morning weather data has come in and so are the question marks for the river valley and Ouachitas. The big question remains…where will the rain/snow line end up on Monday. Both models agree it will be around I-40, but whether it is just north or south will make a big difference in snowfall totals for the river valley. The new NAM model is suggesting that enough cold air could change over the rain to snow across the Ouachitas as well. Though this seems like a stretch for now, if this does happen hefty snow totals could occur through the entire viewing area. Here is the break down on the new model data.
Model #1 (GFS)
4-8″ for all of Northwest Arkansas and Northeast Oklahoma, dusting to 1″ for the river valley and Ouachitas.
Model #2 (NAM)
4-8″ for all of Northwest Arkansas and Northeast Oklahoma, 8″+ for the river valley and Ouachitas.
Our thoughts
As of now we still believe that 4-8″ is possible in Northwest Arkansas, with 2-4″ in the River Valley, and up to 2″ across the Ouachitas. We will be going more into depth on the data and looking at the afternoon weather data later today. There is certainly the possibility that we will have to increase totals along I-40 and to the south if the cold air is a little stronger than anticipated. We will have an update on our expected snow totals and timeline late this afternoon and early evening.
Ross Ellet
Follow us on twitter “4029weather”
The National Weather Service has upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning Across Northwest Arkansas and Northeast Oklahoma. The Warning is in effect from 6am Monday until 6am Tuesday. A Winter Storm Watch is still in effect for McDonald County. The river valley and Ouachitas do not currently have any winter watches, warnings, or advisories. We still believe this will change at some point.
The latest weather data (6z) is continuing to show more cold air. The GFS has shifted the rain/snow line from around Springdale, AR to the Washington/Crawford County line. The total precipitation amounts are a bit less…but show less rain in northwest Arkansas. As a result the GFS was showing around 4-8″ of snow in northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma. The model still has most of the precipitation staying as rain for the river valley with 1-3″ perhaps an isolated amount near 4″ of snow.
The 6z NAM has become the outlier. The model is showing a major shift in the storm track & cold air. As a result, it is showing lighter snow totals in northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma with 3-5″ of snow. The model puts the heaviest snowfall through the river valley and Ouachitas with 8″+ of snow.
At this time, it is tough to believe the 6z NAM model fully. If this trend continues through the 12z and 18z model runs today then it may show a valid trend. The biggest thing to watch will be if the GFS begins to trend closer to the NAM or vice versa in the very important 12z model runs which will come out by late morning on Sunday.
Ross Ellet
Follow us on twitter “4029weather”
