Where Are You Going Fay?

Tropical Storm Fay continues to drop the heavy rainfall hammer across Florida; Fay underwent some strengthening over the Atlantic today, but she’s still forecast to remain a strong Tropical Storm before moving back toward the northwest.

 

Many people are wondering why Fay is moving to the northwest instead of moving to the east?  Take a look at the graphic above.  Right now Fay is being nudged by an area of high pressure over the northeast.  This high is now starting to turn Fay since the winds around the high are clockwise; however, a trough to our northwest will keep Fay from moving across Arkansas toward the end of the weekend. 

The biggest help Fay will provide us will be a northeasterly flow aloft; which will keep hot temperatures from returning this weekend and into early next week.

GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY…

LIVE SuperDoppler RADAR IMAGE

We have some scattered showers across NW Arkansas this morning, but more storm chances will be possible later today. Here is a look at a short range precipitation forecast.

Heavy rain will be the main weather threat with our shower and storm chances.  Here is a look at the estimated rainfall totals today.

ESTIMATED WEDNESDAY RAINFALL

LATEST ON “FAY”…

Tropical storm Fay made landfall early this morning just south of Fort Myers, FL. Now she did make landfall a little earlier than expected, but that is very good news. That meant she was unable to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane. She will still produce extremely heavy rain, strong winds, storm surges and even some possible tornadoes.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

STORM SURGE MAP

FLORIDA RADAR

FLORIDA RAINFALL TOTALS

So that is the very latest information on Fay, but what will Fay do over the next few days. It could be a very interesting next 72 hours based on the latest model outlooks.

MODEL FORECAST

Notice the inconsistencies with the latest model runs, but some models are actually trying to pull her back into the Gulf of Mexico. If that scenario does set up Fay could restrengthen and make U.S. landfall along the gulf coast. There is even one model that is trying to push her northwest towards Arkansas…we will just have to wait and see how things turn out. Models and the National Hurricane Center were having Fay strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane and hit landfall near Tampa, FL; that was not the case as she made landfall near Naples, FL as a Tropical Storm.

SHOWERS TODAY; HEAVY RAIN INTO THURSDAY

Heavy rain will be out weather story over the next several days. That upper level low (the same upper level low we have been watching for what seems like forever) will slowly move east today. The rain showers will be off and on today, but heavy rain will be possible tomorrow and Thursday.

ESTIMATED TUESDAY RAINFALL

ESTIMATED WEDNESDAY RAINFALL

Heavy Tropical Rains Thanks to Fay

She’s taken her time, but tropical storm Fay is moving toward the coast of Florida.  As of 6 p.m. she was dumping winds and heavy rain across the Florida Keys, and she’s expected to make landfall sometime early Tuesday morning as possibly a category one hurricane with winds around 70 mph. 

The southeast in general has been plagued by drought conditions.  Fay is expected to dump between 5 and 15 inches across Florida throughout the next couple of days, and ultimately bring heavy rainfall across Georgia and up the coast. 

The drought is severe across the Carolina’s and Georgia; maybe Fay will bring some welcome wet relief to this dry region. 

LOW PRESSURE; HEADING THIS WAY?

We have been watching a cut-off low over the Texas panhandle all weekend long. Whenever areas of low pressure get cut-off from the jetstream (that is where we get the name cut-off low) it makes it very difficult to forecast exactly what it’s going to do since it doesn’t have any steering winds. Well, now it looks like this low will move a little south and southeast over the next 2 days and then eventually be near us by Wednesday afternoon. As this low pressure gets closer to us; our storm chances will increase too. We could be looking a some more significant rainfall across the viewing area.

500 MILLIBAR MAP (WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

PRECIPITATION FORECAST (WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

ESTIMATED RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

Below Average for the Month!

If you had to attribute a Salsa to the month of August: Fire, Hot, Spicy, or Mild, right now it would have to be MILD!  In fact, Fayetteville is presently 2.3 degrees below average, at 76.8 F for an average monthly temperature thus far and Fort Smith is 0.7 below average, at 81.9 F.  As far as Salsa goes… kind of like the Hot stuff, but w/ temps Mild is fine and dandy!

100s, -are we through?

Temperatures heading into the week ahead will be un-characteristically mild for the middle of August due to first, a High to our north, keeping cool air flowing in from the ENE, and then an upper level low, which promises clouds and some rain.  The maps above highlight a region of anomalously cool air over our area late next week from the Low. “Spin-down”, the process by which a Low fills in and dissipates can take well over a week.  We’ll be fortunate to be in the vicinity of the Low pressure system as it does this, into the upcoming week.  Cool air trapped in the Low will keep average 90 degree highs or better far away into next weekend.  There afterwards, more of a troughiness scenario is being suggested by the ensembles after a brief warm-up. This is a much “cooler” thing to see, pun intended, than a strong ridge of High pressure building into the central US like we saw in the beginning of August when we had the oppressive stretch of triple digit heat.  A “mean trough” across the central plains would mean cooler than average weather, complete with systems (short waves) passing through, bringing at least clouds and hopefully more rain.  In fact, the recent deluge has helped out big time in suppressing heat; moist soil does not heat up as efficiently as dry ground.  So, many atmospheric clues suggest that we may be done with the triple digit heat… let’s hope!

 

Today’s Rainfall & A Funnel?

I thought this was going to be a slow day with just rain and a few embedded storms; however, that was until a few viewers sent in pictures that resembled a funnel.  You take a look and make the call!

 

This shot was taken near Prairie Grove in Washington county.  What makes me think that this was a funnel was the placement of the low moving across our area this afternoon.  Looking back on radar I noticed that across Washington county the storms were moving southwest right around the periphery of the low.  Low level convergence may have created enough wind shear to produce a weak funnel.

In addition to the funnel, take a look at a few rainfall totals from Friday.

92L~Does it Become Fay?

A broad area of convection complete with cyclonic motion at mid-levels and an anti-cyclone on top, presently “named” 92L, continues to be ill-defined at the surface, keeping the storm from assuming the next name in line for the 2008 season which is “Fay”.  The hurricane hunters will be flying into the storm later today.  It is likely that at some point over the next 24 hours Tropical Storm Fay will be at hand.  The latest model tracks below, all bring the storm into the US.