Archive for January, 2013

Tuesday’s Tornado Reports
January 30, 2013

DREW SATELLITE RADAR

Preliminary Information on the Natural Dam Tornado (last updated 9:43 pm CST 1/30/2013):

 

Natural Dam Tornado (Sequoyah County OK, Crawford County AR)

Began:  3.4 miles northeast of Short, OK in Sequoyah County OK at about 2:55 PM CST 1/29/2013

Ended: 3.9 miles north of Natural Dam, AR in Crawford County AR at about 3:04 PM CST 1/29/2013

Path Lenth: 9 miles

Max Path Width: 700 yards

EF Rating: EF-2 with estimated peak wind of 110-120 mph.

 

DREW SATELLITE RADAR2

 

 

Preliminary Information on the Elkins Tornado (last updated 943 pm CST 1/30/2013):

 

Elkins Tornado (Washington County AR)

Began: 3.5 miles west-northwest of Elkins, ARin Washington County AR at about 3:34 PM CST 1/29/2013

Ended: 4.5 miles north of Elkins, AR in Washington County AR at about 3:39 PM CST 1/29/2013

Path Lenth: 4.2 miles

Max Path Width: 400 yards

EF Rating: EF-1 with estimated peak wind of 95 to 105 mph.

 

The National Weather Service will also survey damage near Clifty in Madison county and southern Carroll county on Thursday.  The same supercell storm most likely produiced a third tornado in that area; however, we need to wait for that information.  Check the blog for more information.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter @4029weather and on our 4029 Weather Updates Facebook Page

What a Rain…
January 30, 2013

   Although it didn’t come without some extremely damaging winds, lightning, and a few reports of hail – yesterday’s thunderstorms certain did bring us some much needed rain.

   I was checking on the Tulsa National Weather Service’s web page and according to their calculations – Fort Smith received a record one day rainfall total of 2.71 inches of rain.

   They also had Fayetteville down for getting 2.68 inches of rain yesterday.

   Now, clearly this doesn’t wipe out all of the damage of last years double-digit rainfall deficit – but it certainly helps to put this year’s numbers back in the plus column.

   I am happy to report that for 2013 – we are back in the black.

 

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   Laura Huckabee / Meteorologist

Tornado Watch until 3 pm
January 29, 2013

Screen shot 2013-01-29 at 7.35.07 AM

A tornado watch has been issued for the counties in green until 3 pm.  A line of intense storms has developed to the west of the area this morning,

We do expect the main line of storms to move in between Noon and 6 pm; however, there are chances that some storms could develop ahead of the main line.  These storms will really have to be watched for rotation.

We will be live streaming this afternoon on http://www.4029tv.com   It will be a continuous stream throughout the day, so you can check out what we are doing behind the scenes.  Remember live warnings will automatically update to our twitter and facebook pages, so if the power goes out, you will still have that information.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter @4029weather and on our 4029 Weather Updates Facebook Page

Latest on Tuesday’s Severe Weather
January 28, 2013

DREW HUMIDITY

Strong south winds have transported some deep moisture across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.  Dewpoints have spiked into the lower 60s.  Those dewpoints are more reminiscent of an early spring storm system.  The moisture won’t be in question for Tuesday.  High dewpoints in the 60s will be sufficient fuel for the storms.

Temperatures will spike into the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Cold air aloft will help to spark off the showers and storms ahead of the cold front, but the instability is going to be the biggest question, and that’s why we have a slight risk opposed to a moderate risk for severe storms.

DREW SEVERE SCALE

With the instability in question this event on Tuesday is rated a “2” out of “5”.  Isolated storms could produce hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.  This is a high shear low CAPE type of event.  Rotating storms can’t be ruled out, and that’s why isolated tornadoes are possible.  Most of the storms will be exiting the area by 7 pm as the cold air arrives from the northwest.

Please check www.4029tv.com tomorrow afternoon for a live stream.   We will be watching everything closely for you online so you can watch from home or work.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter @4029weather and on our 4029 Weather Updates Facebook Page

Severe Weather Update for Tuesday
January 27, 2013

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Above is the latest slight risk of severe weather posted by the SPC.  The slight risk of severe weather does encompass the entire viewing area.  Storms will form along a cold front sweeping east through Oklahoma into Arkansas Tuesday morning and remain scattered about the area thru the evening.

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Damaging winds remain the main concern with any storms that do exceed severe limits Tuesday, though, an isolated tornado and some hail can’t be ruled out.  The entire 40/29 weather team will be watching this system closely as it approaches, and when the storms hit we’ll have all the latest watches and warnings scrolling at our website… 4029tv.com, and on facebook… facebook.com/4029WeatherUpdates

Meteorologist Darby Bybee

Warm Today, but Change is on the Way
January 27, 2013

Today will be a warm one as highs will reach the mid 60s this afternoon.  This warming trend will continue for the start of your work week as temperatures will climb to the low to mid 70s.  The reason for this warm up is all because of a warm front that continues to push north.  This puts us in the warm sector giving us spring like temperatures.

Forecast valid Sunday 18Z

We will see a change in this pattern though as a cold front will start to approach the region late Monday.  This front will bring temperatures down to the 40s and the 50s, but before that we’ll have some scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Our warm and moist air mass combined with the cold front will create an environment conducive for some severe storms.  The Storm Prediction Center has already placed us under a slight risk for severe weather Tuesday.

4029_SEVERE_OUTLOOK

Strong winds will be the biggest concern with any severe storms, but there’s also a limited risk for an isolated tornado. After Tuesday highs will drop closer to average in the 40s and 50s with mostly sunny skies for the rest of the week.

 

For more updates you can follow us on twitter @4029weather and also get updates on our Facebook page.

Meteorologist Brittany Bell

Strong Winds & Strong Storms
January 26, 2013

The big stories the next several days in weather are going to be the strong winds out ahead of our next storm system, and the strong storms that could create damaging winds Tuesday.  As this system gathers strength our winds will increase out of the south between 10 and 25mph on Sunday, as seen in the image below…

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The gusty winds will bring with them moisture and warmer conditions.  High temps Sunday are likely to be in the 60s across the entire viewing area and jump into the 70s Monday out ahead of the Low pressure system seen in the image below.  With the extra moisture also will come the extra clouds and slight chances of rain Sunday and Monday both…

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The best chances for rain, however, will occur Tuesday as the jetstream digs southeastward into the region…

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The strengthening winds at the level of the jetstream, in combination with the warm/moist conditions forming at the surface will be the perfect staging ground to form storms Monday night into Tuesday.  If enough heating occurs strong storms will also be possible.  Right now, the dominant threat from any strong storms that do form will be damaging winds…

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As always, you can count on 40/29’s weather team to keep you posted as this storm system approaches.  Further updates to come, but, for now, enjoy the rest of your weekend!

 

Meteorologist Darby Bybee

Taste of Spring
January 26, 2013

Today marks the start of a big warm up.  A warm front near the Red River valley will start to push north late today helping to warm temperatures up to the 60s and 70s for the rest of the weekend and early next week.  This morning this front could spark a few isolated showers in our southern counties.

Forecast valid Sunday 12Z

Tonight a disturbance will also sweep just north of our area and that will give us a chance for some widely scattered showers late tonight through early tomorrow morning.  For the rest of your Sunday highs will reach the 60s and temperatures will climb to the 70s by Monday and Tuesday.

An upper level low combined with an approaching cold front will bring a pretty good chance for some showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.  Our warm and moist air mass will create some instability so some storms could be severe.  Right now the Storm Prediction Center already has our area outlines for possible severe weather Tuesday.

Damaging winds will be the main concern Tuesday, but we can’t rule out the chance for an isolated tornado.  We will continue to keep you updated on what you can expect Tuesday.

You can follow us on twitter @4029weather and also get updates on our Facebook page.

Meteorologist Brittany Bell

Winter to Spring…Big Changes
January 25, 2013

DREW FOCUS FLIGHT

The key to all major warming this time of the year are the south winds.  Saturday is going to be a transition day with a warm front just to our south.  Low clouds just to the north of the front will continue to overspread the area from the south.  There could be an isolated shower possible across SE OK and SW AR; however, most of the area will remain cloudy with highs in the 50s.

Take a look at the picture above.  The warm front will move north across our area on Sunday pushing temperatures in the 60s as the winds turn out of the south.  With the proximity of the front we will continue with a 30% chance for some showers.  Now the weather will really change by Monday as the front books north.

Temperatures will likely spike into the 70s on strong south winds.  The Fayetteville record is 72 in 2002.  Fort Smith is probably out of reach with a record high of  79 in 1970.  In addition to the warmth, the humidity will also be increasing for Monday and Tuesday.

DREW FOCUS FLIGHT1

Of course the focus by Tuesday will be a sharp cold front.  There are still uncertainties with timing, but right now it’s looking like the late afternoon or early afternoon.  Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with the upper level support and moisture.  Dewpoints may very well reach the lower 60s; that type of moisture this time of the year is pretty extreme.  Winds and hail are the primary threats; however, an isolated tornado threat is possible.  The trough is positively tilted, which limits some of the wind shear needed for rotating thunderstorms.

We will continue to watch this scenario for you throughout the rest of the weekend.  Check back with us over the next several days.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter @4029weather and on our 4029weather Updates Facebook Page

Is Rain in the Forecast This Weekend?
January 25, 2013

The weather looks good for the most part this weekend, but, a few showers can’t be ruled out for a part of it at least.  Lets take you through our model forecast and show you what you can expect…

 

Our Friday afternoon we should see the return of the sun shine across the region.  We will remain clear tonight and our temps are likely to fall into the 20s by Saturday morning.  Could see patchy areas of fog as you head out early Saturday morning too…

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Saturday afternoon looks partly cloudy and dry for most of northwest Arkansas and the River Valley.  But, as you can see in the image below clouds will be on the increase across southwestern AR and southeastern OK.  Scattered showers will be possible south of I-40 by Saturday evening.  High temps Saturday will be in the mid to upper 50s…

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Saturday night into Sunday morning does look cloudy.  Along with the clouds some scattered showers will be possible across the entire region.  Sunday afternoon only slight chances of showers are forecast at this time, with high temps in the upper 50s to near 60.

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Overall, no big weather makers are rolling through this weekend, so, if you don’t mind the random shower here and there your weekend plans should be a go!  Have a great one folks!

Meteorologist Darby Bybee