Archive for February, 2013

Light Snow/Flurries Possible Friday Night
February 28, 2013

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The big story over the next several days is the cold moving in from Canada; however, the cold could support some light snow Friday night into Saturday morning.

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Look at the energy aloft at 500mb.  The energy diving south will dig out a significant trough across the central plains and send the cold air rushing across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

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There’s not enough moisture to work with for significant snowfall, so I want to be clear this is not going to cause problems.  Take a look at the 700 mb RH above.  In order to get snow you need moisture within the dendritic growth region which is roughly around 10,000 ft or 700 mb.

There’s enough moisture late Friday night into early Saturday morning for some light snow or flurries.  If it does materialize we are talking a dusting at most.  Highs on Saturday will only climb into the 30s!

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter @4029weather and on our 4029 Weather Updates Facebook Page

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We’re in the Black…. sort of
February 28, 2013

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   The newest drought information has been posted and it looks like much of our state has benefitted from the heavy rains and in some cases – heavy snowfalls – of the past few months.  Almost half of the state has no type of drought concern at all.     However for NW Arkansas and the River Valley we are still in the throes of a lingering drought.   We remain in the SEVERE drought category but our year-to-date rainfall totals are in the plus column.  So you might be wondering why we  are still ranking so poorly.  Think back, last year we ended with an extreme rainfall deficit and although this years precip. totals are improving – we are still trying to make up for last year’s hit.  The good new – if we can keep a little moisture coming in here every couple of days, maybe we can continue to improve our standings.   Laura Huckabee / Meteorologist

Surge of Canadian Air
February 27, 2013

DREW COLD SHOT

A little warm-up is expected for Thursday with highs in the 40s to near 50; however, Thursday will feel warm compared to Friday and Saturday.  Very cold temperatures are sitting across the Canadian border in Manitoba and Ontario, and they are going to head straight south to start the weekend!

A digging trough aloft will pull that cold air across the southern plains.  Highs on Friday will climb into the upper 30s and lower 40s with colder highs in the 30s for Saturday!  Will the cold produce any snow?

 

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With the upper level winds overhead there could be a chance for some light snow into Saturday.  A disturbance within that flow is showing snow on the RPM model above.  The atmosphere is going to be rather dry, so any snow that falls will be very light in nature with limited accumulation.  Our best chance for some light snow or flurries will occur Saturday morning into the afternoon.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter @4029weather and on our 4029 Weather Updates Facebook Page

Winter Sticking Around This Week…..
February 26, 2013

The winter storm that’s moving away from the area hasn’t finished with us quite yet.  The low will slowly track northeast over the next several days.  The flow from this storm will continue to influence our weather heading into the weekend.

DREW COLD SHOT

The winds around an area of low pressure flow counter-clockwise.  The departing system will keep our flow out of the north, and that means we won’t have the opportunity to quickly warm back up.  The strongest front will arrive during the day on Friday and last through Saturday.  You can see the trough that digs across our area into Saturday.  850 mb temperatures are forecast to drop to -12C by Saturday!

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DREW COLD SHOT2

The coldest day of the week is Saturday with highs in the 30s!  With the upper level energy there’s a chance for some light snow late Friday into Saturday.  It’s something we will watch; however, in my opinion, the bigger story is the cold to start the weekend.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter @4029weather and on our 4029 Weather Updates Facebook Page

A Winter Weather Timeline
February 26, 2013

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   Are we on round four or round five this time?  Regardless, we are waking up to the threat of winter weather yet again in NW Arkansas, Eastern Oklahoma, and maybe parts of the River Valley.

   We are still under the Winter Weather Advisory for Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas until noon today.  In these areas there is the possibility of 1-3 inches of snow accumulation.  Three inches of accumulation may be a bit generous – but in the highest elevations, it may not be totally out of the question.

   By noon today the winter weather is on the way out –  if not finished.  The rest of the day will be cloudy, windy, and cold.  I wish I could tell you that a big sunny warm up was going to be moving in tomorrow to save the day – but it looks like we will stay cloudy for Wednesday as well and well below seasonal averages temperature-wise.

   Laura Huckabee / Meteorologist

Please Visit Our Livewire Chat…
February 25, 2013

Now that the weather is starting to change, we’re offering a livewire chat at 4029tv.com  Click on the link below to go to the event.  We will be posting weather information on the livewire.  It will be faster than blog posts and will be updated by all 4 meteorologists.

http://livewire.4029tv.com/Event/Live_Updates_Potential_Snow_Tuesday

Drew Michaels

Chief Meteorologist

More Winter Weather Ahead
February 25, 2013

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   THUNDERSTORMS will move into SE Oklahoma Monday morning spreading into NW Arkansas during the day.  A few of these storms could be severe producing hail and gusty winds.  The afternoon will stay wet with RAIN.

   In NE Oklahoma in the late afternoon and early evening that rain will begin to change to snow.  This transition will continue Monday night as everything moves northeast into Arkansas early Tuesday morning. 

   In NW Arkansas there is a winter weather advisory from 6:00 this evening until noon tomorrow.  That means that snow accumulations could be anywhere between 1-3 inches with the higher values found in the upper elevations.

   Since highs yesterday were in the mid and upper 50s in NW Arkansas and 61 degrees in the River Valley – much of what falls on the major roadways will melt – nevertheless, rural roads, bridges, and overpasses are worth watching. 

   Keep it right here for the latest Winter Weather Updates.

   Laura Huckabee / Meteorologist

ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY
February 24, 2013

The vast majority of the snow still looks to fall over northern Oklahoma, Kansas, and western Missouri, but, accumulating snow does now look just a hair more possible for NW AR.  Here’s the set up we’ll have Monday, lots of rain  with all the snow well to our west…

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As the Low Pressure center moves over head and off to the northeast we’ll be left with whatever moisture and cold air that remains.  Along with the snow Tuesday morning the winds will be whipping from the northwest at 15 to 25 mph at times.

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Snow total accumulations with this one, as it appears now, look to be generally on the range of a Trace to 2″ in NW AR and from a Trace to 1″ in the River Valley.  So, the thresholds for snow accum are a little higher in NW AR with this one, but, it certainly doesn’t mean everyone in NW AR will get the full 2″ amount.   Especially with a storm system such as this one, in which the snow will likely occur in bands across the region.  Those who sit under one of these bands the longest will likely see the highest totals.  Regardless, with temps being above freezing throughout much of this event accumulations on the roads are not too likely.

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Timing on this one is also important.  The change over from rain to snow is most likely to occur between 2am and 4am, and the heaviest snow is likely to occur between 4am and 10am.  After 10am just a few scattered flurries will be flying, mainly north of the I-40 corridor.

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Remember, the track of the Low Pressure center is crucial with any winter storm, and this one isn’t set in stone.  The snow pack covering the entire central plains could still help force this system farther south than what our models are predicting.  If this were to happen snow totals could increase.  We’ll be watching it and have more updates tonight at 9 and 10.

Meteorologist Darby Bybee

Rain Tomorrow and Some Snow
February 24, 2013

After a nice and warm Sunday we’ll see a change in our pattern starting tomorrow morning.  An approaching system just to the west of us will usher in a cold front that will give us some rain Monday and a chance for some snow.  Tomorrow morning we’ll have showers across the area for the morning commute.  We could have a few rumbles of thunder, but we’ll see mostly rain to start out the day.

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Showers will increase in coverage tomorrow afternoon.  Late Monday night we’ll have some wrap around moisture combine with cold air and that will give us the opportunity for some snow.

MONDAY NIGHT ROSS_SURFACE

Snow totals will be minor with locations receiving a dusting up to an inch mostly north of interstate 40.  The River Valley and southeast Oklahoma will stay in the warm sector Monday night so snow chances there are limited.  The low pressure system will track directly through our area keeping the heaviest snow to the northwest of us. Rain and snow clears out late Tuesday morning giving way to a chilly day.

We will continue to keep you updated on any changes.

You can follow us on twitter @4029weather and also get updates on our Facebook page.

Meteorologist Brittany Bell

MONDAY RAIN, TUESDAY SNOW
February 23, 2013

Right now this storm does not show signs of being much of a winter weather event for NW AR and the River Valley, but, it is something we’re watching closely. As this system approaches it’s going to bring in a southeast wind that will warm us nicely on Sunday. On Monday the clouds will arrive and so will the showers by Monday afternoon. A few storms can’t be ruled out, though the only severe weather that will occur Monday will be well to our south. The heavy snow, meanwhile, will occur well to our northwest.

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Monday night the Low Pressure center with this system will track directly over the top of the viewing area.  Not a good track for heavy snow in NW AR and the River Valley.  Basically, as it appears now, we get the left overs.  Whatever cold air and moisture this system has left by the time the Low passes to our east will constitute the snow we receive.  Which, by the looks of it, won’t be much more than a dusting to an inch in the grassy areas.  Not exactly a snow storm.

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But, as with all winter storms, our models sometimes have trouble resolving how some things will impact the overall pattern.  The massive snow pack now located over Kansas and Missouri is one good example of something that could play a larger roll in the track of this storm system than what our models currently give it credit for.  This snow pack acts as a large cold pool, sometimes driving storm systems farther south.  We’ll keep watching it for now and have more updates on the news Sunday.

Meteorologist Darby Bybee

Meteorologist Darby Bybee