Archive for August, 2012

Issac’s Position
August 31, 2012

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The remnants of Isaac are sitting over Fayetteville this morning. The showers are rotating counterclockwise around the low.

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Scattered showers will continue this morning into the evening mainly I-40 and north. Highs will remain in the 70s in the rain cooled atmosphere. Breezy shifting winds will occur as the low departs to our north.

So far this morning we have picked up a quarter of an inch to a half inch of rain.

Drew Michaels

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Strong Winds Tonight
August 30, 2012

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Strong gusty winds will remain possible overnight with an increase in rain.

Winds between 30 and 40 mph are possible with isolated power outages.

Please send pictures and video to ulocal@4029tv.com

Drew Michaels

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Isaac Heading This Way
August 30, 2012

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Well Isaac’s rain has finally pushed into southeast Arkansas. Expect the clouds to increase from the southeast this afternoon. Most of the rain should hold off until after sundown; however, rain will begin to move in across southwest Arkansas toward the early evening.

Looking over the 12Z extracted data it seems like 1″ to 2″ of rain should be common through Friday evening. Locally higher amounts closer to 3 inches are possible toward the eastern part of our viewing area toward Clarksville. Localized flooding could become an issue in areas approaching 3 or more inches.

Gusty winds over 30 mph are possible late tonight into Friday morning. At this point power outages aren’t very likely with Isaac.

Drew Michaels

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12Z Look at Isaac’s Track
August 29, 2012

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The models continue to take Isaac northwest into our area late Thursday into Friday.

While the exact track is still in question, there’s high confidence that Isaac’s remnants will roll across eastern OK and western AR.

The actual center of Isaac could roll through the heart of our area. With the remnants of these systems there’s always an isolated tornado threat; however, it looks like that threat will be more toward central Arkansas.

We will watch it for you.

Drew Michaels

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Flash Flood Watch
August 29, 2012

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A Flash Flood Watch has been issued across a good majority of Arkansas in advance of Isaac.

The NWS in Tulsa is holding off on a watch at this point to include all of northwest Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. If Isaac’s track is further west I would expect more counties added to the watch.

The rain and storms will quickly increase late Thursday night into Friday. Several inches of rain is expected across our area. As of now the highest totals would occur in the eastern part of our area. The rain should move out late Friday night with just a chance for rain on Saturday.

Drew Michaels

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Ready or Not…
August 29, 2012

As Isaac begins to weaken over the next 24 hours, much of the energy and moisture associated with the storm will be moving northward and that could mean excessive amounts of rainfall here in Arkansas.  So much so that the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for a good portion of the state.

You can see by the map that NW Arkansas and much of the River Valley are not in the watch area yet.  But depending on what Isaac does, the counties included in the watch could change.  The watch goes into effect on Thursday as clouds and rain showers begin to move in.  Throughout the day Thursday, Thursday night, and most of the day Friday, we are expecting rain and that is the time period that the watch covers.

In some cases more than 5 inches of rain could fall and potentially that could mean serious flooding. Please be mindful of this over the next 48 hours and stay tuned to 40/29 TV for any changes in the path of the storm.  Even a small directional shift in the storm’s path, could have a huge impact in your forecast.

Right now our biggest chance of rain in NW Arkansas and the River Valley is Friday although rain will begin falling in our area as early as Thursday.afternoon and evening.

Laura Huckabee / Meteorologist

 

12Z Isaac Data Shift
August 28, 2012

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The 12Z data is shifting Isaac’s eventual track a little further west. This trend had been noted by the GFS over the last several runs.

The official track takes Isaac through central Arkansas; however, I suspect that track might shift closer to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

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Look at the heavy rainfall possibilities with Isaac. If the track shifts we could be in the path for several inches of rain. Now while it won’t end the drought, it could put a dent in it.

Drew Michaels

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A Look at Hurricanes…
August 28, 2012

Some people consider hurricane to be the most powerful storms on earth – and when you see widespread devastation from those storms – the claim would be hard to dispute.  So what makes a hurricane so powerful and deadly? 

One answer might be winds.  In order to be considered a hurricane, maximum sustained winds associate with the storm have to be least 74 miles per hour.  Remember, that’s a constant wind speed, not a wind gust.  Hurricanes are categorized by wind speed and faster winds are usually the sign of a stronger storm.  Winds not only damage structures but they blow dangerous debris everywhere… and interestingly wind damage can start long before the biggest part of the storm arrives. 

Rain can also be a very dangerous part of a hurricane.  Believe it or not six to 12 inches of rain falls when your typical hurricane makes landfall – sometimes even more than that.  In fact large amounts of rain can happen in areas more than 100 miles from where the storm comes ashore – so widespread flood and mud slides become an enormous problem. 

Finally, storm surge can be devastating.  Because we don’t live near the water’s edge many folks around here may not know about the effects of storm surge but it is actually the greatest potential threat to life and property.  Storm surge is a huge dome of water – sometimes 50 to 100 miles wide – that sweeps across the coastline as the hurricane makes landfall.  Sometimes it can be more than 15 feet deep and when you combine that high water with a constant pounding of waves it is easy to see why a storm surge is so deadly. 

   Here in Arkansas our greatest potential threat from a hurricane would be heavy rains or tornados.  It may surprise you to know that tornados spawned by hurricanes are quite common so be sure to stay with 40/29 as Isaac comes ashore so we can keep you up to date with the latest weather information.

   Laura Huckabee 40-29 news.

Keeping Track of Isaac….
August 27, 2012

There’s still plenty of uncertainty about the track of Isaac.  We expect landfall early Wednesday morning south of New Orleans as possibly a Category 2 Hurricane with winds around 100 mph, but where will he go after that?  The official track takes it north across central Arkansas as a tropical depression.

Tropical weather isn’t a complete stranger to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.  The last significant tropical system that impacted our area was Tropical Storm Ike in 2008.  Ike hit Texas and swung around and  died out over our area.  Ike produced some winds to 40 mph with flooding rainfall across parts of our area.

If Isaac moves directly over our area we could experience some similar effects.  Winds could gust to 40 mph possibly producing a few isolated power outages.  Heavy flooding rainfall would also be a concern.  Several inches of rain would likely fall from Thursday through Friday.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at @4029weather and on our 4029 Weather Updates Facebook Page

Finally, some water.
August 27, 2012

  We have seen pictures like this representing our drought stricken situation in Arkansas for too long.  Maybe some of the rains that we got over the weekend will help your lawn, or crops, or garden.  I know that not everyone in the viewing area got rain but for those that did, it was a real benefit.  Since midnight Fayetteville got about .77 inches of rain while in Fort Smith, there was almost half an inch of rain ( .44 officially).  Keep in mind that rainfall amounts can vary even over the smallest of distances… so your numbers might be different.

   As of today, the National Weather Service in Tulsa is reporting Fort Smith’s rainfall deficit as -3.28 inches year to date while in Fayetteville the numer is still in the double digits at -10.14 inches year to date.

   All eyes will continue to be on the tropics to see where Isaac will make landfall.  There will be a lot of energy and moisture associated with that storm and once it makes landfall that moisture could move northward right into Arkansas.  Even though it is still a few days out, Isaac’s moisture surge could have a big impact on our extended forecast.

   Stay with us and we’ll keep you posted.

   Laura Huckabee / Meteorologist