Archive for June, 2008

2008 Yearly Rainfall Totals
June 30, 2008

As promised, here’s a look at yearly rainfall totals to date 2008.  Now that we’ve ended June, it’s quite staggering to think that we’re less than five inches away from YEARLY averages in Fayetteville; only another 4.79″ will do it!  Heavy rain could be a possibility by the end of the week with a few overnight complexes; we’ll see what that does.  In Fort Smith, only another 6.62” brings us up to average for the year.  Somehow I don’t think we’ll have a problem hitting that!

Not one, two, or three… but four!
June 30, 2008

This unbelievable shot of four waterspouts on the Adriatic Sea was captured by Robert Giudici in August of 1999 off the coast of Albania, while en-route from Italy to Greece.

ACTIVE PACIFIC OCEAN
June 30, 2008

The Eastern Pacific has been very active over the past several days. Two named storms are currently taking place and another area of disturbed weather is being monitored.

BORIS

CRISTINA

The Caribbean and the Atlantic has not been as active and it looks like it will stay quiet over the next 48 hours.

I LIKE THIS HIGH PRESSURE
June 30, 2008

High pressure building to our north is such a good thing this time of year. As this area of high pressure continues to move south our winds will be out of the north and northeast (thanks to the clockwise flow of air around high pressure). These winds will keep the humidity and temperatures lower than average for this time of year. I know Monday can be tough, but when our weather is this nice it’s had to be too upset.

Heading into Monday
June 30, 2008

Heading into Monday the 1023mb High stamped to our northwest will be a big player for a few days.  Flow around areas of high pressure in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is clockwise; subsequently, we’re in-line to get northerly winds. Highs pressure is associated with sinking air too, so cloud cover will be limited as well. In fact much of the moisture that engulfed our area on Saturday has been pushed to our south and east via the front presently draped along the Gulf and East Coast. 

 

Aloft at some 18,000 feet (500mb *chart below), it’s quite easy to pick out the ridge to the west and the trough to the east.  The trough has one closed isobar and is dug out pretty deep for this time of the year.  Flow around areas of low pressure in the NH is counter clockwise; hence-therefore, due to the positioning of the Low, we’re duly in-line for northerly winds.  This Northerly flow will keep our highs 5 to 8 degrees below seasonal averages tomorrow.  Mid to upper 50s are also likely by morning across NW AR, which is about 10 degrees below average!  As the surface high shifts eastward by mid-week, we’ll develop more of an easterly wind and then ultimately a southerly wind which will take us back to summer.  The GFS has been hinting at possible MCC action for both Thursday and Friday morning.  We’ll be in NW flow aloft and in the right location… something to watch!

 

ENJOY MONDAY!

DRY AIR MOVING IN!
June 29, 2008

The large yellow swath of “nice” air happens to be a region where dewpoints are lower than 55 degrees.  Dewponts in the middle 50s is comfortable, especially after having several days of readings in the low 70s, which feels quite oppressive.  You may already be feeling the dryer air moving in!  Water Vapor imagery, showing mid-level and upper level moisture, dries out nicely too north of our area.  The area of Low pressure circled in yellow is owed a thank you, for what will likely be a trio of gorgeous days!  The arrow denotes the general northerly wind direction that we’ll be receiving over the next several days keeping the humidity low and the temperatures below average.  Don’t get spoiled!  There’s still plenty of summer to go, but for now we won’t think about it…

 

ENJOY

 

Beautiful Sunday Coming…….
June 28, 2008

The rain continues to fall across the southern part of the viewing area this afternoon, but a brilliant blue sky, along with a lower humidity level arrives for Sunday.  The lower part of the troposphere has really been gunked up over the last week with dust, dirt, and pollutants; did you notice almost the hazy white appearance to the sky throughout the afternoons?  This will be gone as we get a cleaner airmass from all of the precipitation.

In addition to the sky, we’ll expect dewpoints in the 50’s.  This will make the humidity levels drop significantly, so being outside during the afternoon won’t feel as oppressive.  Notice the clearing on the satellite picture across Kansas and Missouri; that’s heading our way!  Highs for tomorrow will likely climb into the upper 70’s to the low to mid 80’s!

1:00 PM Update… MCV to watch!
June 28, 2008

Check out the little swirl in the cluster of clouds in SW OK.  This is what is known as an MCV, which stands for Mesoscale Convective Vortex.  This is the remnants of a larger system that formed last night.  The “spin” is still going and we’ll have to watch this feature carefully; it will most likely serve as a source of lift and a focal point of new convection.  SE OK has not seen much activity.  The afternoon could be busy.  Already we’re seeing convection starting to form around the swirl.  Perhaps, it will develop an “eye”!

 

 

9:45 AM Update
June 28, 2008

Daylight (visible satellite) has helped to highlight the activity around our area. Several complexes remain scattered throughout the south central plains and we’ll be the recipients of their weather today.  We’re south of a boundary and plenty of moisture is in place (see map below).  As the front moves through today many rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely, yielding a distinct threat of localized flooding.  

 

 

 

The leading edge of the complex to our NW (presently in southern Kansas) is packing a mean punch!  Severe T-storm warnings are accompanying this as it continues moving to the SE. Wind gusts in the 65 to 75 mph range are possible.  We’re monitoring developments closely. 

 

 

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE
June 28, 2008

 

A boundary is slowly pushing through our area.  Several complexes that developed this morning and one that is just now becoming mature in central Kansas are interacting with this boundary; eventually, over the course of the next 24 hours, a push of much dryer and cooler air will work in.

The early morning visible satellite shot below highlights the three distinct cylindrical shapes of the complexes near our area; one to the West, one to the NW, and one to our East.  

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most of the activity with the complexes to the West and East has become spread out, though the one to our NW has a distinct region of severe weather jutting out to the south.  This is clearly visible on the radar imagery in southern Kansas, just to the West of I-35.  We’ll be monitoring developments of the front, complexes, and individual cells that pop throughout the day.  The predominant threat with any lone cell will be hail and gusty winds.  The tornado threat is low.  We look to catch some sun by the early afternoon which will help destabilize the atmosphere.  A likely redevelopment may ensue with peak heating today.