Archive for December, 2007

December 31, 2007

By Tuesday Morning as widespread teens take hold of our region it may be feeling like zero or even minus single digits! Check out the chart above. Winds will be up as high as 30 mph hour in the wake of a strong arctic blast and with Tuesday’s actual highs in the 30s the wind will make it feel as cold as the teens.


Happy New Year….Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!
December 29, 2007

The glasses will be raised, resolutions will be made, and the lyrics to Auld Lang Synge will be butchered and slurred, but if your planning another typical New Year’s Eve, you may want to plan on some changing weather. An arctic cold front’s on the way just in time for 2008. For the record, I swear Dick Clark is like 100 years old!

Look at the monster ridge building across the Pacific Northwest by New Year’s Eve. More jetstream energy on the east side of the ridge will send the cold air across Canada south throughout the southern plains.

850 mb temperatures are forecast to drop between -12 to -13 degrees Celsius. The cold air advection will give us highs in the 30s, and lows in the teens for Tuesday and Wednesday. Happy 2008!

Friday’s Snow Update
December 28, 2007

A wintry mix is still possible across NE OK and NW AR by Friday morning; however, the track of the upper level low looks to stay well to our north, keeping the heavy snow totals across Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa.

Upper elevations across NW AR above 1500 feet could see a dusting to an inch, but most of that will occur on grassy surfaces.

The air aloft will be too warm across the River Valley, so we’re just looking for a cold light rain for Friday morning. Toward the afternoon, some flurries will be possible as the system departs to the NE.

December 27, 2007

Here is the very latest weather update concerning the upper level low that will move through the area late tonight and early tomorrow morning. This is our “PRECISIONCAST” weather model for 6:00 am Friday morning. Notice that all of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas has a very good chance of waking up with either rain or a wintry mix. Right now, it looks like south of I-40 will be mostly rain chances. North of I-40 looks to be where the freezing line will be, in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This is the part of the system where the rain will try to turn over to snow. It’s represented by the pink shading you see on the image. This is where sleet could possibly take place, but I am going to hold off on the chance of freezing rain in the forecast for right now. In order to get freezing rain, you need warm air aloft and freezing temperatures at the surface. We are forecasting morning lows to be above freezing for the entire viewing region and our air looks to be cold aloft. The heavier snow accumulations will be well to the north. “Snow Advisories” have been issued for all Oklahoma counties along the Kansas border. The good news about having temperatures above the freezing mark (32°F/0°C) at the ground level is that it should prevent snow accumulation on roads and bridges. Keep checking back to and our weather blog for the latest weather information.

Wednesday’s Snowfall
December 26, 2007

Photo Taken by Brenda Cunningham from Mena, AR.

An upper level wave of low pressure moved across SE OK and SW AR today, creating accumulating snowfall in the upper elevations of SW AR. Most locations above 1500 feet received the snow as the wave moved overhead. The key to the snow was the cold core of temperatures aloft. The path of the wave really dictated where the snow fell opposed to rain.

This photo shows the snow accumulating just north of Ozark around 1650 feet. That same snow turned back to rain around 1300 feet. What a difference in just a few hundred feet!

Photo Taken by 40/29 Storm Chaser Brian Emfinger north of Ozark, AR.

Arctic Blast Coming??????
December 26, 2007

Merry Christmas to all of you! What a beautiful day with highs well into the 50’s. Several waves of low pressure look to knock down temperatures over the upcoming week, but nothing will compare to a monster trough that’s forecast to ring in 2008.

Notice the plunge of 850 temperatures. We’re talking -12 to -13 degrees Celsius at 5000 ft. The GFS does have a cold air bias, so that’s something to take into consideration, but it has been showing this cold blast for several runs now. That provides confidence with the cold solution. This cold air mass would likely mean highs in the 30s and lows in the teens! We’ll have more on the cold air as we gather new information.

Frost Flowers
December 26, 2007

This is the perfect time of year for the formation of Frost (or Ice) Flowers. The conditions for the formation of Frost Flowers are pretty simple: a unfrozen wet ground + below freezing temperatures at the surface. They form just above the ground surface around stems of plants, shrubs and even small trees. They are formed as sap and water in the stem of the plants expands (water expands when frozen), causing long, thin cracks to form along the length of the stem. Water is then drawn through these cracks via capillary action and freezes upon contact with the air. As more water is drawn through the cracks it pushes the thin ice layers further from the stem, causing a thin “petal” to form. In the case of woody plants and tree branches the freezing water is squeezed through the pores of the plant forming long thin strings of ice that look like hair or plastic. Frost Flowers are extremely delicate and the slightest touch destroys them. They are also know as: “ice flowers”, “frost castles”, “frost beard”, “ice castles”, “ice ribbons”, or “ice blossoms”. Frost Flowers can be found anywhere but the best places to see them are in river/stream valleys and in extremely shaded areas.

December 25, 2007

Here is a look at the areas across the United States that are celebrating a white Christmas. You notice how we don’t fall into the white shading. Actually our weather for the holiday will be very unseasonable for the afternoon. After the very cold start, temperatures warm nicely with the abundance of sunshine and our winds out of the southeast. Some places might even be jealous of our weather. One place that might be envious is Glasgow, Montana. The afternoon temperatures there will only warm into the upper 20s. Our temperatures warm into the middle and upper 50s. Great weather to get out doors and enjoy all the new presents!

Have You Been Naughty or Nice….
December 24, 2007

Ok, so I know that snow was first on most of your weather Christmas lists, however, Walmart and Best Buy are all out, so I’ll have to look into my bag of goodies and see what else I can give you. My first wish is to be back scuba diving in Jamaica, well, I can’t do that either, so how about we compromise with unseasonably mild temperatures? It’s a Christmas miracle….

Look at the 850 mb flow on Christmas day. We’re talking about a 850 wind out of the southwest, which is of course is a warming wind. For all the kids and adults trying out their new toys outside, it looks to be a real nice day. How about temperatures area wide climbing into the 50’s!

Merry Christmas to all of you….Jamaica Christmas sounds pretty good?

Winter Weather Looks to Remain North
December 22, 2007

A lot of folks will likely be shopping tomorrow afternoon, so all eyes remain on the forecast. The upper level system will hold the snow and ice just to our north for Saturday.

By the time the cold air moves into our area, the moisture will be winding down. Take a look at the 0Z NAM above. The bulk of the precipitation will fall as rain throughout your Saturday afternoon. A dusting of snow or so is possible Saturday evening across NE OK and NW AR; however, the accumulating snowfall will be held north of I-44 along the track of the 700 mb low.