Archive for October, 2012

Saturday’s Front
October 31, 2012

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We are still watching the cold air spilling out of Canada tonight. Saturday is the day when our cold front arrives.

The models are diverging when it comes to QPF. The GFS
has the highest pops while the NAM is pretty dry. I kept the pops at 40% with the uncertainty. The RPM is also dry for the record.

If storms do develop there’s a chance for some small hail and gusty winds. We will watch it for you. Hoping for some more run to run consistency.

Drew Michaels

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A Halloween Memory
October 31, 2012

   This is a picture of my daughter and me.  And this little girl, the love of my life, is all boy.  Her Halloween costume repertoire has consisted of such characters as Batman, a stormtrooper, Darthvader, and a Baseball Star.

   This picture was taken about four years ago — and sadly, I won’t be able to be with her this year for trick or treating fun but I know she will have a wonderful time.  I hope you and your little ones have a safe and happy Halloween. 

   The forecast will be clear and cool with early temperatures in the 60s but remember, once the sun goes down it will get pretty cold pretty quickly.

   Enjoy the night.

   Laura Huckabee / Meteorologist

Storm Chances for Saturday
October 30, 2012

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All eyes have been on the east coast and for good reason, but now our attention quickly shifts to the northwest. A storm system is pounding the northwest, and this wave will help to change our weather for the weekend.

That wave will help to drop a cold front across our area by Saturday afternoon. The GFS today was consistent with CAPE values over 1,000 and LI values at -6. I want to see if the NAM is on board tomorrow, but there’s an isolated chance for strong to severe storms.

Hail and gusty winds would be the main threat. The cold air aloft would help to weaken any capping inversion in place Saturday morning. Best chance for storms would be during the late afternoon and early evening. We will continue to update.

Drew Michaels

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It’s That Time of Year Again…
October 30, 2012

   It’s my favorite time of the year – when we turn our clocks back one hour to say good-bye to Daylight Saving Time 2012.

   This Saturday, before you go to bed, make sure to turn back all of your clocks – yes, even the one on the microwave and in your car.  Don’t worry, the cell phones and computers will do it automatically. 

   Here at 40/29 the morning crew calls it the best weekend of the year because we’ll all get an extra hour of sleep before you see our smiling faces on Monday morning. 

   I may be a few days early – but an early reminder is always good.  We say goodbye to Daylight Saving Time this Saturday night… don’t forget to set your clocks back.

   Have a great day.

   Laura Huckabee / Meteorologist

Historical Sandy…What a Left Turn
October 29, 2012

 

In a political year hurricane Sandy definitely leaned way to the left.  This turn was unbelievable to watch this afternoon; it looked more like a bad golf shot than a hurricane.  Sandy really accelerated toward the coast which helped to produce some intense surface winds!  I saw some reports of 90 mph wind gusts outside of New York.

 

 

The wave that ejected all of that life into Sandy moved toward the eastern side of the hurricane.  Since the jet energy wasn’t balanced to the west, Sandy took a hard left turn right into New Jersey as the low intensified.

While Sandy was a hurricane her pressure dropped to an unprecedented 940 mb.  That’s the lowest pressure ever recorded in a hurricane north of Cape Hatteras.  The old record was 946 millibars in a storm known as the “Long Island Express” in 1938!

Sandy should also set the record for the lowest non-tropical storm pressure in the lower 48 states.

This storm will be studied for years to come.  We won’t know the impacts of Sandy for weeks or even months down the road.  The material cost will be in the billions not counting the cost of precious life.

Drew Michaels

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Hurricane Sandy
October 29, 2012

   With less than 15 hours until many forecasters predict to be landfall, Hurricane Sandy continues to strengthen as she moves toward the U.S. coast.

   The latest model runs have the storm making landfall sometime after midnight near Atlantic City, New Jersey. 

   One of the greatest concerns at this point will be storm surge.  Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are projecting that in some cases the walls of water could be as high as 8 to 10 feet or higher.  In addition, hurricane force winds are being reported as far away as 150 miles from the center of the storm.  Those factors coupled with all of the heavy rain, and the dramatically colder air that is headed for the northeast are going to make for an increasing dangerous situation.

   Stay with 40/29 tv and we will keep you  up to date with the latest on Hurricane Sandy.

   Laura Huckabee / Meteorologist

A Calm Week
October 28, 2012

Despite the active pattern on the east coast as hurricane Sandy continues to develop, in our neighborhood things will be on the quiet side.  We’ll be sitting under a ridge of high pressure and northwest flow aloft for most of this week.

At the surface, southerly winds will return warming up our highs closer to average for this time of the year.  For the rest of the week you can expect a mix of sun and clouds with mild highs.  By the weekend and early next week a disturbance will move across the area and bring some rain chances. 

Brittany Bell

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Absolute Northeast Nightmare
October 27, 2012

 

I don’t care what they end up calling this storm; this is going to be a historical nightmare for the northeast late Sunday into Monday.

This is a picture of 850 mb or 5,000 ft winds aloft by Monday afternoon.  Look at the purple color near Boston.  Those are forecasted winds of 100 knots.  It’s very possible that the winds could gust over 80 mph near New York and Boston!  Major tree damage, coastal erosion, and massive power outages are expected.

 

The super boost will happen when this shortwave in yellow will move from Arkansas into the back of Sandy!  This will help to deepen the storm and pull in cold air from the northeast.  The change in temperature will drop the pressure within this storm and increase the wind speeds.

Sandy will most likely be downgraded from a tropical system as she approaches the east coast.  As Sandy heads north she will encounter some cooler water temperatures which will limit her tropical status.  But it won’t matter, after Sandy gets that shot in the arm from the west, she will eventually explode into a superstorm with a minimum sea level pressure around 956 mb!

The lowest non-hurricane barometric pressure reading in the lower 48 states is 28.10″ (952 mb) measured at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) during an amazing nor’easter on March 1, 1914 (see Kocin and Uccellini, “Northeast Snowstorms; Vol. 2., p. 324, American Meteorological Society, 2004.) The lowest non-hurricane barometric pressure reading from anywhere in the United States was a 27.35″ (927 mb) reading at Dutch Harbor, Alaska on Oct. 25, 1977.

As a meteorologist this is something that we are waiting to see.  Storms of this magnitude are so rare; we don’t really know what will happen.

Drew Michaels

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A Cool Start
October 27, 2012

A lot of us are waking up to frost outside on the lawn and cars as temperatures dropped to the upper 20s to the lower 30s. But for the rest of the day we’ll have mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Current Temps

We have an area of high pressure settled just to the west of us filtering in cooler air into our area.  These northerly winds will keep our lows pretty frigid overnight once again.  We’re still under a freeze warning tonight so definitely keep that in mind if you have any plants outside your house.

Forecast valid Saturday 18Z

For the rest of the week we’ll have southerly winds return helping to warm our highs closer to average.  But despite our warm highs overnight lows will still be on the chilly side. 

Brittany Bell

You can follow us on twitter at @4029weather and you can also get updates on our Facebook page.

Weekend Fall Foliage Report
October 26, 2012

Thanks to our friends at http://www.arkansas.com for the latest fall foliage report.  The weekend will be dry and cool for some leaf changing adventures.  Make sure you share your photos on ulocal at http://www.4029tv.com

Northwest/North Central– In northwest Arkansas, foliage is near peak in places likeFayetteville and Eureka Springs. As a general rule, more color is present starting about 40 miles north of I-40.Harrison spotters also report good color, with a mixture of green leaves that have not turned. Similar reports came in from Corning and Mammoth Spring. Trees are at 50% color around Clinton, Greers Ferry Lake andMountain View. A very strong cold front will enter the state today and bring a big temperature drop. These colder temperatures in the seven day forecast will accelerate color change. Expected peak of color: Late October.   

Central Arkansas/Ouachita Mountains– Spotty color mixed with a lot of green is the report for central Arkansas and the Ouachita Mountain Range. In western Arkansas, sweetgum, red maple and sumac are turning around Fort Smith and Mena, with a lot of green hardwoods that have not changed. There is also color along theCossatot River, with the surrounding forest mostly green. Hot Springs and Little Rock also have mostly green conditions, with some color among the ornamentals and hickories. Expected peak of color: Early November.

Southern/Eastern Arkansas– Spotters at Crowley’s Ridge State Park in northeast Arkansas betweenJonesboro and Paragould report good color this week. This scenic area has persimmon and hickory trees turning yellow, sweetgums red and sugar maples orange. Nearby Lake Frierson State Park also has spotty color this week. Further south, Village Creek State Park between Wynne and Forrest City reports fairly good color with more expected next week. All of these parks are on the Crowley’s Ridge National Scenic Byway, which follows various highway routes, including Ark.141, 163 and 284. No color has developed at the southern end of Crowley’s Ridge yet. The hardwoods are still primarily green in the St. Francis National Forest and Helena-West Helena. A similar situation exists across south Arkansas, wher elittle color has appeared due to warm temperatures. Expected peak of color: Mid-November  

Summary: We have a much anticipated cold front passing through the state today that will cool down temperatures and accelerate color change. Those who travel this weekend will find moderate color in the Ozarks, mixed with green hardwoods that need a few more days. Spotters in areas such as Fayetteville and Eureka Springs report that their regions are colorful now but will likely be better early next week. Visitors attending the 30th Annual Bean Fest & Outhouse Races in Mountain View will see moderate color.

Fall Fact: Don’t wait too long to visit a favorite fall foliage destination. The leaves usually look best just before they fall. The stems are thin and fragile.  Rain and wind can bring an end to color in a region in a matter of hours.

Drew Michaels
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