Archive for August, 2010

30 Day Rainfall Totals
August 31, 2010

Ross’ blog entry about the upcoming rain will be a welcome sight as drought conditions creep in across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.  I want to give you a snapshot of rainfall over the last 30 days across the area. 

Some locations like Mena and Fort Smith have picked up several inches of rain.  Unfortunately the totals really drop off as you look at some of our northwest Arkansas cities.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

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Too Good To Be True?
August 31, 2010

The computer models this morning look more optimistic for rain, perhaps heavy rain, than during anytime in the past 6 weeks. A southeast flow for the past couple of days have brought lots of “fuel” (moisture) for showers and thunderstorms. This along with daytime heating and a slow-moving cold front will provide 4 days of rain chances. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will bring scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. These will be more of the hit and miss variety, meaning you could get some brief but heavy rainfall while others don’t get a drop. The more encouraging story for drought and wildfire relief will approach on Thursday night and into the early morning hours on Friday. A strong, slow-moving cold front will slice into the moist environment overnight Thursday and lead to widespread rainfall. Both the GFS and NAM computer models are now showing the potential for 1″+ of rainfall across northwest Arkansas and most of eastern Oklahoma. We will keep our fingers crossed! Here is a look at the GFS (00z Tue model run) computer model showing accumulated rainfall.

Here is a look at the NAM (00z Tue model run) computer model showing accumulated rainfall.

Both of these models do show additional rainfall after this 6 hour period going into Friday morning as well.

Ross Ellet

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Cold Front Starting to Develop
August 30, 2010

A sharp cold front is starting to take shape across the northern plains.  This front will move into our area late Thursday into Friday morning.  We’ll expect some showers and storms along the front Thursday night into early Friday morning. 

The timing will be perfect for the upcoming Labor Day Weekend.  The front will clear the area by Friday evening and usher lower humidity for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

The Washington County fair starts on Tuesday and lasts throughout the rest of the week.  There’s a 40% chance for showers and storms for Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Hurricane Earl Could Hit The East Coast
August 30, 2010

Hurricane Earl is a category 2 hurricane this morning and is expected to become a massive category 4 hurricane within the next 36 hours. The storm is forecast to take a turn to the north later this week and come extremely close to the east coast. At this time, the most likely track of Earl will keep it off of the coast of the United States. However, some computer models are tracking the storm further west putting the Outer Banks in North Carolina in the direct path of Hurricane Earl. Other location that could have a direct encounter with Earl are Cape Cod, MA and Nova Scotia Canada.

Ross Ellet

Follow us on twitter “4029weather”

Humidity Returns…
August 29, 2010

After a hot Saturday the clouds have been a welcome change this Sunday.  The clouds represent the leading edge of some deeper moisture coming off the Gulf of Mexico.  The circulation around an area of high pressure over the northeast  is pumping the humidity back into our area.

Going into your Monday look for a variably cloudy sky with an isolated chance for a shower.  Better chances for rain will exist across central Arkansas.  The humidity will also continue to increase thanks to dewpoints in the upper 60’s.  Highs on Monday will climb into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

August 2010 Will Stand Out In The Record Books
August 28, 2010

There are still 3 days left until the end of August but the damage is already done. The extreme heat and dry conditions over the past 4 weeks have contributed to drought conditions developing and after looking at the numbers, it’s not hard to see why.

So far August of 2010 has been the 3rd driest and 15th hottest on record at one of the Fayetteville observing sites that dates back to 1892. In other words, August 2010 ranks within the top 8% of the hottest and driest years over the past 118 years.

In Fort Smith, August 2010 to date has been the 49th driest out of the past 128 years on record. Even more shocking is that this August has been the 3rd hottest ever recorded. The only time the average August temperature was hotter was during the dust bowl in 1934 and in 1936. Records began in Fort Smith in 1882. We will have a more detailed breakdown of the official August and summer stats later this week when the official data comes into the weather center.

Ross Ellet

Follow us on twitter “4029weather”

Backyard Astronomy….Mars, Venus, & Saturn Visible Tonight
August 27, 2010

Many people have asked about the Mars hoax going on tonight.  An e-mail scam has said the size of Mars will rival the moon.  That’s false; however, Mars is visible tonight, and you’ll get a chance to view it along with Venus and Saturn.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Saturday Outdoor Forecast
August 27, 2010

Low humidity will continue into Saturday.  Expect a mostly sunny sky with a few clouds developing toward the afternoon.  Enjoy Saturday because the humidity will increase for Sunday and Monday.

The lake and state park forecast for Saturday will feature highs in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s.  Use the sunblock and enjoy the day.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Dry Weekend Expected
August 27, 2010

A strong area of high pressure is keeping the jet stream near the US/Canadian border this weekend. As a result the jet stream, the fast-moving current of air that directs our storm systems, will help to keep us dry over the next several days.

It should be a comfortable weekend for anybody getting outdoors. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the 50s to low 60s on Saturday morning and in the 60s to near 70 degrees area wide on Sunday morning. Rain chances look to increase later next week on Thursday and Friday.

Ross Ellet

Follow us on twitter “4029weather”

Yearly Rainfall Defecit
August 26, 2010

An extremely dry August is starting to take a toll on the area.  Here are some yearly numbers across northwest Arkansas and the River Valley. 

Fayetteville is showing a slight surplus of rainfall thanks to a wet July.  Fort Smith and the XNA airport are several inches below average heading into Fall.

If we don’t receive some significant rain in the next couple of weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised if most of our viewing area gets upgraded into a drought.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”