Archive for March, 2011

April Outlook
March 31, 2011

Updated official long range forecast from the Climate Prediction Center:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

Near average precipitation is expected for our area this April.   However, Western Arkansas and Eastern Oklahoma is on the edge of where below normal precipitation is in the forecast.   The center of a warm and dry April is centered over West Texas.

So it appears we will see near normal precipitation and either near normal or above normal temperatures this month. 

We average nearly 4″ of rain for the month of April.   Of course, April is known for its thunderstorms.   There will be a risk of severe thunderstorms on Monday.  Details to be ironed out on exact timing and extent of severity, but this is a topic that we will be talking more about in the coming days. 

Damon Shaw, 40/29 Meteorologist

Follow us on twitter at “4029weather” 

Afternoon Update
March 31, 2011

The back of the rain approaching Northwest Arkansas around 2-3pm this afternoon.   With temperatures around 37-39 degrees in most of Northwest Arkansas, you may even briefly spot some sleet pellets or wet snowflakes in the rain.   Driving into work, I noticed some of the raindrops hitting the windsheild had some texture to it, in the form of partially melted wet snowflakes.   So don’t be surprised if you see some of that, especially in the higher elevations of Northwest Arkansas/Boston Mountains.   This rain will be quickly moving east of the Fort Smith/Fayetteville area by 4pm with drier conditions this evening. 

Hang in there…still expecting major improvements to our temperatures Friday afternoon and into the weekend!

Damon Shaw, 40/29 Meteorologist

Follow us on twitter at “4029weather”

Rain Showers Developing….
March 31, 2011

An upper level disturbance moving across Kansas is kicking off scattered showers to our northwest.  Some of that rain will possibly mix with some sleet across northeastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

The rain should start to move in between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m.  The rain will linger throughout the afternoon and move out toward the evening.  The highest probability for rain will sit along and north of I-40.  Clouds and rain will keep temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s today.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Rain Moving In Thursday
March 30, 2011

An upper level disturbance (lifting air) will move out of Kansas on Thursday.   Look for a rather narrow band of rain to develop for at least Northwest Arkansas during the midday and afternoon hours.   It appears that the best window of opportunity of rain will be roughly from about Noon to 4pm.  

The bottom image is the NAM computer model projected rainfall amounts for Thursday afternoon.  It is forecasting about 1/10″ to 2/10″ of rainfall in Northwest Arkansas with 1/4″ amounts possible.   Rainfall will likely be less and more spotty for the Fort Smith area, while Southeast Oklahoma will be the area most likely to be dry.  

This rain should move east of our area for Thursday evening. 

Damon Shaw, 40/29 Meteorologist

Follow us on twitter at “4029weather”

Major Warm-Up This Weekend
March 30, 2011

I have great news for you all of you tired of the cold temperatures.  The pattern looks to switch nicely toward the weekend, and that means much needed warmth. 

A nice ridge of high pressure will settle over the plains this weekend.  High pressure over the Rockies means sinking air, and that sinking air warms up rapidly. 

Temperatures on Saturday will soar into the 70’s under a lot of sunshine.  Sunday could be the warmest day of the week with highs in the 80’s. 

More clouds will roll in from the Gulf Saturday night into Sunday morning; however, those clouds will likely break up during the course of the day.  With a partly cloudy sky and 16 to 18 degree celsius at 850 mb, we’re expecting temperatures to warm 15 to 20 degrees above average.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Tuesday Rainfall Totals
March 29, 2011

Much of Northwest Arkansas seeing about a 1/4″ of rain earlier today.   Although there will be more rain chances developing by Thursday.  This system is starting to look less impressive for much of our area (but still may see a 1/10″ of rain in some locations, with higher amounts in Missouri and North Arkansas). 

A better chance of thunderstorms is shaping up to be centered  Monday ahead of a cold front. 

Afternoon Update
March 29, 2011

Much of the heavier showers and thunderstorms moving to the south and east Fort Smith.   With the chilly temperatures, it is somewhat easy for some of the heavier rains have produced some isolated areas of sleet/small pea sized hail.   However, no organized severe storms are expected.  Although the heavier rains will be moving out this evening, still plenty of low cloud cover still may produce some drizzle or occasional light showers into the evening hours.  

Damon Shaw, 40/29 Meteorologist

Follow us on twitter at “4029weather”

5:30 a.m. Scattered Showers & Storms Developing
March 29, 2011

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across eastern Oklahoma this morning.  No severe weather is expected; however, some storms may produce some small hail.

Expect scattered showers and storms to develop all across the area this morning and afternoon.  Rain should be heading east toward the late evening hours.  Highs will climb into the upper 40’s and lower 50’s.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Another Soggy & Raw Day
March 28, 2011

Isolated showers and storms will be possible overnight tonight, but rain chances will increase after daybreak on Tuesday. Rain is likely through the day including Tuesday evening when the Razorbacks hit the field to take on the University of Oklahoma. Highs will be held in the mid 40s to low 50s on Tuesday.

More rain is expected on Thursday with highs in the 40s. A big warm up will move in by the weekend with highs returning to the 70s.

Ross Ellet

Follow us on twitter “4029weather”

Storm Chances Return Tonight…
March 28, 2011

The clouds look to stick around this afternoon.  Some peeks of sun are possible; however, temperatures will only climb into the 50’s.  We should remain dry for Monday afternoon, but the wet weather is expected to return tonight.

The weather will become more active late tonight as the low-level jet picks back up after midnight.  The LLJ will likely fuel some elevated showers and storms across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Widespread severe weather is not expected, but isolated strong to severe storms may produce dime to nickel size hail.

Lingering showers will continue into your Tuesday afternoon!

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”