Archive for March, 2013

Sunday Forecast Update
March 31, 2013

We’re starting this Sunday with showers and thunderstorms.  A cold front currently drapped across the River Valley is moving south triggering a line of storms across the area.

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Rain and clouds will begin to clear early this afternoon.  We’ll start to see clearing skies from north to south as we progress through the day.

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Skies will continue to clear this afternoon as highs will reach the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

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You can follow us on twitter @4029weather and get updates on our Facebook page.

Meteorologist Brittany Bell

Saturday Rain
March 30, 2013

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to track across the area this morning.  A few thunderstorms early today could produce some small hail and gusty winds.

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Rain will begin to clear out late this morning throughout the early afternoon.  But later this evening we’ll have another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms as a weak cold front will begin to approach the area.

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Temperatures will warm to the 60s and 70s today, and that coupled with a humid air mass will give us some instability. So any storms that manage to form later this evening will be isolated and some could reach severe limits. The main concerns with any storms that become severe will be hail and damaging winds. The SPC has most of our area included in a slight risk for severe storms.

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We will continue to keep you updated throughout the day.

You can follow us on twitter @4029weather and also get updates on our Facebook page.

Meteorologist Brittany Bell

Weekend Showers
March 29, 2013

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   Much needed rain is making its way through NW Arkansas and the River Valley this morning.  The early morning rain showers (and isolated storms) are racing rhrough (west to east) at about 30 mph.  Because they are moving so quickly, they’re not dropping a great deal of rain in any one spot  – but since we have additional opportunites for the rain to move through this weekend – maybe some of these passing showers will add up.

   Although we are not counting on severe weather this weekend, there’s no ruling out an isolated storm or two.  If you do get one of those storms, the greatest weather threats will be hail, gusty winds, or locally heavy downpours.

   Highs through Sunday will be in the mid to upper 60s.

   Laura Huckabee / Meteorologist

Thursday Evening Update…
March 28, 2013

 

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The low-level jet heats back up tonight!  The jet will interact with a wave moving out of the northwest flow, and that will spark off scattered showers and storms overnight.

No severe weather is expected; however, some storms could produce some small hail and heavy rain.  It looks like scattered showers and storms will hang around throughout the morning commute before firing back up Friday night into Saturday morning.

I’m off for the next couple of days so have a wonderful Easter weekend.

Drew Michaels

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Our Water Situation is Improving
March 28, 2013

Wordpress   Good news in the weather department.  It looks like our drought situation for NW Arkansas and the River Valley is improving.  The most recent graphical representation by the US Drought Monitor has our area moving out of the severe drought category and into the moderate drought status.

   Right now in the River Valley the 2013 rainfall totals year to date look to be mostly in the plus column.  In Fort Smith – the surplus is 2.09 inches.  Meanwhile, in NW Arkansas the year to date rainfall has a slight negative bend with a deficit in Fayetteville of about .47 below normal for this time of the year.

   The  good news is that both areas have some really great opportunities for rain over the next five days.  Since that is the case, we should be able to “bank” some of this water and keep ourselves on the plus side – for at least a little while.

   Have a great day.

   Laura Huckabee / Meteorologist

Storms Arrive Thursday Night…
March 26, 2013

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The pattern is going to heat back up by the end of the week.  I tried to create the best picture of the atmosphere above.  The jetstream orientation will be northwest to southeast.  Ripples along the jet will interact with moisture surging from the south, and that will fuel nocturnal complexes of showers and storms.

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The first complex will occur late Thursday night into Friday morning.  While the severe weather risk is low, these overnight storms could produce small hail and locally heavy rainfall.  If these waves are timed out right, the storms will clear for each afternoon.

 

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The good news with this pattern is we will be picking up on several inches of rain from Thursday through Monday.  On average around 3 inches will be possible; that’s going to really help us as we vault into the warmer spring months.

Drew Michaels

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Active Weather This Week…
March 25, 2013

Talk about wanting to hibernate! Another cold night arrives with wind chills in the teens and 20s. Light snow remains possible this evening and will clear out after 10 pm. The weather becomes more active and spring-like by the latter half of the week.

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A stationary front will set-up across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas on Friday and Saturday. This stationary boundary will act as a focus for showers and storms.  Most of these storms will occur overnight into the morning hours.

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You can see the 5,000 ft winds out of the southwest.  These winds will transport warm and moist air above the surface.  This transport of moisture and warmth creates elevated instability and thunderstorms.  Storms could produce locally heavy rainfall and hail.  Some isolated severe weather will be possible; however, with elevated storms the tornado threat is extremely low.

This low-level jet set-up is more conducive for nocturnal storms.  Storm complexes are expected Thursday night into Friday morning, Friday night into Saturday morning, and Saturday night into Sunday morning.  At least it looks like the storms will be out by Easter afternoon.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter @4029weather and on our 4029 Weather Updates Facebook Page

Sunday Weather
March 24, 2013

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Good Morning Everyone.  There is a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY in effect until 1:00 this afternoon for Benton and Carroll counties in NW Arkansas as well as Ottawa and Delaware counties in NE Oklahoma.  This means during the next several hours the snowfall moving through our area could accumulate to anywhere between 1 – 3 inches.  This accumulation will primarily be in the highest elevations and the farther north you go – the more snow you will likely see.

Afternoon highs today will be in the mid 30s in NW Arkansas and in the 40s in the River Valley so anything that does fall will be melting away later in the day.

If you are in the River Valley you can expect off again on again cold rain showers.

Regardless of where you our in the viewing area, it will be windy.  Wind gusts could be anywhere from 35 to 40 miles an hour.

Monday will bring more sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures.

Laura Huckabee / Meteorologist

ONE MORE TIME
March 23, 2013

Just one more. That’s all I wanted, just one more snow, and I could call it quits. I, along with a few of my snow junky friends, will get our wish. But, it won’t snow everywhere, so, let’s break it down and get right to it. We’ll have just rain tonight, but, as colder air filters in early Sunday morning that will start to change to snow. If our interactive radar at 40/29tv.com tomorrow you’ll see the snow pin-wheeling its way thru northern Oklahoma and Kansas in to Missouri and NWAR. The snow will start in NWAR between 5am and 7am Sunday morning. Our in-house model shows moderate to heavy snow falling across the region by 7:30am…

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With temps near or below freezing Sunday morning this snow will accumulate on some area roads, so, be careful driving around Sunday morning as conditions will be slick in places.  The snow will continue off and on throughout the morning before tapering of to scattered flurries and snow showers Sunday afternoon.  To make things worse the winds will be blowing very strong out of the northwest, over 20mph at times…

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Total snow accumulations will generally be on the order of 1-3″ across Benton and Carroll counties, with lesser totals for Washington and Madison counties.  Keep in mind, we’ll be getting new data into the weather center tonight, so, these totals could still shift a few miles north or south.  Here’s what we expect as of now…

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Our in-house model is in general agreement, though it does keep totals slightly lower.  Here’s what it’s putting down for Sunday…

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As I said, there is still room for slight changes to the forecast, so, I’ll be watching it carefully and providing additional updates tonight at 9 on the CW and at 10 on 40/29.  Stay tuned…

Meteorologist Darby Bybee

Our Weekend Weather
March 23, 2013

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Winter weather watches, warnings, and advisories are stretched from the Rockies through the Ohio Valley this morning.  You’ll notice that NW Arkansas and NE Oklahoma are not under any type of advisory – but if that changes we’ll be certain to let you know.

What starts as rain will begin turning over to snow anytime after midnight but the likelihood of the switch gets much greater for us between 6am and noon.  There could be a little accumulation (1 inch to possibly 2 inches in the extreme elevations) before all is said and done on Sunday.  However, since Sunday’s forecasted highs are well above freezing – anything that does fall will melt away by later that afternoon.

Keep it right here for the latest weather developments.

Laura Huckabee / Meteorologist