Archive for June, 2011

6:00 P.M. Update…
June 30, 2011

Scattered showers and storms have developed across portions of the area this evening.  Some of these storms could produce quarter hail and strong gusty winds to 60 mph.

Notice the thin blue line that’s moving toward northwest Arkansas.  That’s an outflow boundary that could provide the focus for a few more showers and storms; however, all of the storms will weaken and dissipate after 9 p.m. 

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Advertisements

Thursday Afternoon / Pool Forecast
June 30, 2011

After a HOT Wednesday afternoon, with plenty of sunshine and heat, expect more of the same this afternoon. An excessive heating warning is in effect for Fort Smith / River Valley for today, which means that the heat index (heat + humidity = feels like temperature) is expected to top out between 105 – 110 F later this afternoon. ACTUAL temperatures this afternoon will average around the mid 90s in Northwest Arkansas and in the upper 90s to lower 100s around Fort Smith / River Valley.

Another element this afternoon will be the SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) for pop-up isolated t’storms. A lot of times these small storms don’t move much…producing very localized effects. If you ARE lucky enough to see these storms, expect gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see a brief severe thunderstorm warning throughout the short lifespan of the storm (typically 30-45 min long). The good news? The storm would at least provide relief from the heat (at least for a couple hours).

With plenty of sunshine and HOT weather expected for today, here is a look at the pool forecast:

Matt Devitt

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Record Heat Keeps On Coming
June 29, 2011

There is no doubt about it, the dog days are here. June will go down as the hottest on the record books in Fort Smith. It will also be the 3rd driest on record unless an isolated storm can develop within the next day. In northwest Arkansas, June of 2011 will likely be the 9th hottest and 6th driest on the record books. As we head into July, the hot trend continues! There are no major pattern changes expected in the next couple weeks. However, there is still hope that more organized rounds of showers and thunderstorms can develop by the middle of July.

Ross Ellet

Follow us on twitter “4029weather”

Tropical Storm Arlene Forms In The Gulf Of Mexico…
June 29, 2011

It only took a month, but the first named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season has formed. Computer models over the past 3-5 days have been hinting at tropical development near the Yucatan Peninsula and finally the area of convection became better organized..forming into TS Arlene. Recent satellite data has shown that Arlene is strengthening (IR images reflect that), however computer models are hinting that it will remain just below hurricane status before it makes landfall in Northern / Central Mexico…It still could be a strong tropical storm before crashing into the coast, bringing winds between 55-70 mph and heavy flooding rains. Interesting to note that some of the medium-long range computer models hint that possibly the remnants of Arlene (the moisture) could make it up to our area by early to mid next week.

Matt Devitt

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 11 P.M.
June 28, 2011

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for Latimer, LeFlore, McCurtain, and Pushmataha counties until 11 p.m.  An outflow boundary from this morning’s convection is now the focus for more showers and storms for this evening.

Storms in that area could produce 70 mph winds and hail to the size of golf balls.  The atmosphere is very volatile across southeastern Oklahoma.  The storms will weaken after 9 p.m. as the sun goes down.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

11:30 AM Update – Strong Storms Moving East
June 28, 2011

A strong line of storms will be moving into NW Arkansas over the next hour or two…Heavy rain, frequent lightning, small hail, and winds between 30-50 mph are possible. Tahlequah and Westville have both reported wind gusts between 40-50 mph with this line of storms (OK Mesonet). Around the rest of the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible with this entire complex over the next couple of hours.

Matt Devitt

Follow us on twitter “4029weather”

 

Like Our New 40/29 Weather Updates Facebook Page
June 28, 2011

The 40/29 Super Doppler Weather Team now has its own Facebook page at facebook.com/4029WeatherUpdates. We’ll be posting forecast updates, links to content here and on 4029tv.com, photos, and live updates during winter weather and severe weather.

Please check it out and “Like” it! Also, please share it with your Facebook friends.

8:45 AM Update – Scattered Showers / T’Storms Around Both NWA / River Valley
June 28, 2011

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are continuing to pop-up across some of our eastern counties as they continue to push-off to the east. Heavy rain, cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and small hail are all possible with these storms. Now that’s ROUND 1…

ROUND 2 is moving towards the east as well….currently around central / eastern OK. These storms have been holding together as they’ve been riding along both I-40 and I-44. Expect these storms to possibly move into our area during the late morning and afternoon hours…Once again, heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail are all possible with these storms.

Matt Devitt

Follow us on twitter “4029weather”

About to Break a Record!
June 27, 2011

 

The June heat has been oppressive!  We’ve been dealing with the extreme heat for the entire month, and it will likely be  record-breaking for Fort Smith in a few days.

Today marked the 27th day that Fort Smith reached 90 degrees or more.  The record of 29 days was set back in 1953.  We will have to wait, but most likely we will break this record.  June of 2011 in Fort Smith will most likely go down as the hottest June on record!

A weak front will move in late tonight that will spark off a 30% chance for some storms.  Temperatures for tomorrow will climb back into the upper 80’s to the low to middle 90’s.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Speak Peek – July 4th Forecast!
June 27, 2011

Making plans for the 4th of July? Unfortunately as of right now, scattered showers and thunderstorms might move back into our area and forecast late into the weekend / start of next week…Here is a look at the GFS 06z model run:

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ZOOM IN:

(July 4th Late Morning / Early Afternoon)

(July 4th Evening)

As you can see from the model data, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. Now we can take both the good and the bad from this…The good…I would expect more cloud cover with this type of pattern, which HOPEFULLY would knock our temperatures down a couple of degrees. And obviously the bad… rain would damper outdoor plans, including fireworks / parties. I would like to point out forecasts 7-10 days will give you an IDEA of what might happen, but definitely is not set in stone and quite often will drastically change from day-to-day. Stay tuned!