An upper level disturbance (lifting air) will move out of Kansas on Thursday. Look for a rather narrow band of rain to develop for at least Northwest Arkansas during the midday and afternoon hours. It appears that the best window of opportunity of rain will be roughly from about Noon to 4pm.
The bottom image is the NAM computer model projected rainfall amounts for Thursday afternoon. It is forecasting about 1/10″ to 2/10″ of rainfall in Northwest Arkansas with 1/4″ amounts possible. Rainfall will likely be less and more spotty for the Fort Smith area, while Southeast Oklahoma will be the area most likely to be dry.
This rain should move east of our area for Thursday evening.
Damon Shaw, 40/29 Meteorologist
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