A Winter Storm Watch has already been issued for Northwest Arkansas, Northeast Oklahoma and further up into Missouri and Kansas. For now, I think this a good placement where the watch should be for an event this far out, as it appears that the higher risk of significant ice and/or snow accumulations will be from Northwest Arkansas to the north and west.
Still monitoring for some ice and snow potential for Fort Smith/River Valley. However, it appears that a lot of this will be just a cold rain for much Thursday morning in Fort Smith with temperatures falling from the 40s to the 30s during the day. While some ice and snow is still possible that far south before it ends, for now, it appears it would be under Winter Storm criteria.
For Northwest Arkansas, it may initially start as rain with temperatures just above freezing early Tuesday morning. However, temperatures are expected to drop from the 30s to the 20s during the day on Tuesday. It will likely switch to freezing rain later Tuesday morning. As the cold air gets deeper during the day, a changeover to snow is expected. Exactly when we drop below 32 degrees and when the changeover occurs from freezing rain to snow will determine on how much ice we get and how much snow we get. One factor that may limit the amount of snow accumulations on top of the ice will be the potential for the drier air aloft (less favorable for big snowflakes)shortly after it becomes cold enough in the entire atmosphere for snow. My gut feeling is telling me that snow accumulations will probably not be as high as models are advertising.
Damon Shaw, 40/29 Meteorologist
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