It’s hard to believe we’re talking about a fire danger threat after all of the heavy rainfall in October. The ground has dried out quickly, and with the forecasted winds and warmth, the fire threat is going up.
We’re sitting between a zone of low pressure in Canada and a dominant high across the east. Between these zones the winds will increase between 10 and 20 mph. Strong surface winds could fan the flames and start additional fires with dead vegetation acting as fuel.
In addition to a tight pressure gradient for Friday and Saturday, compressional heating will develop along the front range of the Rockies. Downsloping along the front range will yield above average temperatures across our region for Friday and Saturday.
Notice the warmth already across the west! These warm temperatures are heading our way. If you have burning to do it would be a good idea to wait a few days until the winds subside.
Drew Michaels
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Here is a look at some of the temperatures that were reported across the area this morning. We had a “frost advisory” for NE OK and NW AR, but some of the viewing area was down at or slightly above freezing!
BLOG ENTRY BY: PATRICK CRAWFORD (11-5 9:00 AM)
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Tonight temperatures across northwest Arkansas will drop to around 34 degrees under a clear sky and a light wind. Frost will be possible, but with the temperature above freezing how can frost form?
What is important is not what the temperature is at the thermometer, but what the temperature is where the frost formed.
A thermometer indicates the temperature where the thermometer is, usually a few feet above the ground. Because cold air sinks, the ground can cool very quickly. The temperature at ground level can be cooler than a few feet higher where the thermometer is. Even though the thermometer indicates a temperature that is above freezing, it can easily be below freezing a few feet lower.
Certain materials like glass and car metal radiate heat quickly and therefore cool quickly. Also, areas like rooftops or high plateaus, because of their exposure lose heat through re-radiation very quickly and tend to receive frost before sheltered areas.
Drew Michaels
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We are not the only ones experiencing the quiet weather conditions. There is no active weather in the forecast for the entire Continental United States over the next several days. Here is the severe weather outlook over the next 3 days…
SEVERE OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY)
SEVERE OUTLOOK (THURSDAY)
SEVERE OUTLOOK (FRIDAY)
That’s not to say that there will not be any showers or storms over the entire U.S., but no organized severe storms.
BLOG ENTRY BY: PATRICK CRAWFORD (11-4 8:25 AM)
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Talk about an active week in terms of frontal passages; fortunately the moisture has been limited, and we’ll remain dry.
Another shortwave of low pressure will move across the upper midwest on Wednesday. You can see that wave pictured above. That wave will drop another cold front our way by Wednesday afternoon.
Expect highs on Wednesday to climb into the middle 60’s across northwest Arkansas, with the River Valley climbing into the lower 70’s. Surface winds will switch out of the northwest by the late morning.
Drew Michaels
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There are some big changes on the way for next week. The good news is that our dry weather pattern should continue for the rest of this week, but then storms are back in the forecast. We could be talking about some heavy rainfall. We are anticipating a cold front to move through on late Sunday and early Monday. The cold fronts we have been seeing lately have not had a ton of moisture to work with and with the lack of moisture, the lack of storms. An area of disturbed weather developing in the Gulf of Mexico is looking to move North into the Gulf Coastline. When this happens an abundance of moisture will be heading our way right before the cold front hits our area. Timing is “HUGE” when it comes to this forecast and it is very far out, but the latest data is slowly agreeing with this scenario.
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK (NOVEMBER 10TH - NOVEMBER 16TH)
This is the latest long-range outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. It’s showing a good chance for above average rainfall next week. Now the next question, what are the weather models forecasting next week? Here is the latest precipitation forecast for early next week.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST (TUESDAY MORNING)
BLOG ENTRY BY: PATRICK CRAWFORD (11-3 4:45AM)
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Photo Credit: Lick Observatory
November’s full moon will rise tonight with limited interference from cloud cover. Tonight’s full moon has many different names as the legends have it. The most common full moon names for November are the Beaver Moon, Hunter’s Moon and the Frost Moon. The Chinese refer to the full November moon as the White Moon. The Cherokee refer to it as the Trading Moon. The Choctaw call it the Sassafras Moon. The Celtic called it the Dark Moon, The English during the Medieval period called it the blood moon. The Neo Pagan called it the Tree Moon, and the Dakotah Sioux called it the “Moon When Horns Are Broken Off”. Surely there are many more names I forgot, but at least when you take a look at the full moon tonight you will have lots of names for it.
Ross Ellet
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The sun will be out in full force today and that will lead to temperatures warming near 8° above average this afternoon. A cold front will move through the area tonight and that should drop temperatures down to average Tuesday.
CLOUD FORECAST (MONDAY 12PM)
CLOUD FORECAST (MONDAY 3PM)
CLOUD FORECAST (MONDAY 6PM)
SURFACE MAP (MONDAY NIGHT)
The good news with our next cold front is that it won’t provide any showers or storms. The dry weather will continue into the weekend.
BLOG ENTRY BY: PATRICK CRAWFORD (11-2 9:41 AM)
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This week’s going to be perfect if you like to view the solar system; finally we get the clear sky for great viewing of the stars and planets!
I ran across this article courtesy of spaceweather.com, and I wanted to share it with you. The picture below was taken by Joel Warren from Amarillo, TX.
Wake up before dawn, go outside, and look straight up. That eerie red “star” staring back down at you is Mars. The red planet is approaching Earth for a close encounter in January 2010 and it is already brighter than a first-magnitude star.
Next, point a telescope at the red planet and you’ll see a surprising splash of icy blue:
Mars’ north polar cap is big enough and bright enough to be seen though most backyard telescopes at medium to high power,” says Joel Warren of Amarillo, Texas, who took the picture on Halloween using an 11 inch Celestron telescope.
On Mars, northern winter has just ended and clouds which normally hover over the martian arctic are breaking up, allowing the planet’s great ice cap to be seen. “This apparition will offer observers the best view of the N. Polar Region to be had in many years,” notes Warren.
Drew Michaels
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The warm and sunny weather will continue into Monday but our next weather maker isn’t far away. A cold front will move in late Monday into early Tuesday morning. Despite the front the air will remain very dry and just a few clouds will move in along the frontal boundary.
On the other hand, temperatures will drop into the 60s for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday before a warm up by late week. The big story is that we are not expecting rain to return to the forecast for the next 7 days.
Ross Ellet
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