Tropical Storm Ida is 120 miles South of Mobile, Alabama. Current motion is nearly north now near 20 mph.  The maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph.   Numerous other buoys across the north-central Gulf of Mexico are reporting gusts anywhere from 40-55 mph.  Ida should come onshore near Mobile, Alabama around midnight as a strong tropical storm.

 Storm Surges, however, should be low (2-5 feet) and then only from about Orange Beach to Destin.  This will cause some Flooding along some of the Barrier Island.  Rains will be heavy, however.  Amounts of 4-7” likely across the western Florida panhandle to eastern Louisiana and then north to about a Bainbridge, GA to  Waynesboro, MS.  Further north the shortwave tonight should carry rains into northern Alabama and Georgia with 1-3” amount there.

Drew Michaels

The Beijing Weather Modification Office (a division of the Chinesse goverment) has helped to produce a snowstorm over a wide swath in China that included Beijing. The same division caught headlines in 2008 for attempting to keep the Summer Olympics dry.

Article Courtesy of Yahoo News:

BEIJING (AFP) – – Chinese meteorologists covered Beijing in snow Sunday after seeding clouds to bring winter weather to the capital in an effort to combat a lingering drought, state media reported.

The unusually early snow blanketed the capital from Sunday morning and kept falling for half the day, helped by temperatures as low as minus 2 Celsius (29 Fahrenheit) and strong winds from the north, Xinhua news agency reported.

Besides falling in the northeastern provinces of Liaoning and Jilin and the northern province of Hebei, the eastern port city of Tianjin also got its first snow of the autumn, the report said.

“We wont miss any opportunity of artificial precipitation since Beijing is suffering from the lingering drought,” the report quoted Zhang Qiang, head of the Beijing Weather Modification Office, as saying.

Chinese meteorologists have for years sought to make rain by injecting special chemicals into clouds.

Although the technique often gets results, a drought in the north of the country has continued for over a decade.

Besides the snow, which the Beijing Evening News said was the earliest to hit the capital in 10 years, the cold weather and strong winds also delayed air travel from Beijing’s Capital Airport, while interrupting passenger shipping services off the coast of Shandong province in the east, Xinhua said.

http://ph.news.yahoo.com/afp/20091101/tap-china-weather-beijing-snow-8d4ea94.html

Ross Ellet

GULF SATELLITE IMAGE

Hurricane Ida has slightly weakened over the past 12 hours.  She was once a Category 2 Hurricane and has been downgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane.  She should continue to weaken slightly as she gets closer to land, but definitely something to watch out for all along the Gulf Coast.  Here is a look at the latest.

It looks like Ida will be making landfall late tonight or early Tuesday morning near Pensacola, Florida.  Some isolated areas could see well over 8 inches of rainfall as Ida moves slowly over the Southeast.  Here is a look at the updated rainfall estimate through Saturday morning.

BLOG ENTRY BY: PATRICK CRAWFORD (11-9  6:50 AM)

Oh my how things have changed. This is the time of the year where the average temperature free falls and the overnight record lows are already in the teens, but despite the calender we have been enjoying a very nice start to November after a record-setting chilly and wet October. The average temperature for the viewing area is nearly 3 degrees warmer now than what it was in October.

Ross Ellet

My meteor capture camera caught this Taurid Meteor Fireball nearly straight overhead at 1020PM CT. Anyone else see it?

Also, a reminder that the Leonid Meteor Shower peaks on November 17th. There is a possibility of a good outburst of meteors even though the most favored locations for the outburst appear to be Asia.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/04dec_leonids2009.htm

Post by Brian Emfinger

The warm weather will last into Monday before a shot of cooler air arrives with more clouds on Tuesday. Another surge of warm weather will return by next week with more dry weather continuing.

Ross Ellet

The winds and the sun will help to boost temperatures well above average for Saturday.  We’re expecting highs to climb into the mid to upper 70’s and lower 80’s by Saturday afternoon. 

I have included the records for Saturday!  Most impressive are the averages.  In early November we should have highs in the low to middle 60’s; enjoy the above average warmth!

Drew Michaels

Winter Forecast

The Super Doppler Storm Team has been hard at work over the past few sunny and warm days putting together the winter forecast. The temperature forecast for Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas this winter is near average. The active storm track across the southern part of the country will lead to colder than normal conditions to our south and east. Above normal temperatures are expected for areas to our north and west.

Precipitation across Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas is expected to be near average. Snowfall is also expected to be near average across the area. The River Valley averages about 3 -7″ of snow a year, northwest Arkansas averages between 6 – 10″ of snowfall a year with Gravette picking up the most snow each season with an average of 16.2″ each season. Although snowfall is expected to be near average this winter, that would still be the most snow the area has seen in a decade. The 1999-2000 winter season is the last time the area has picked up above average snowfall totals including 11″ in Fort Smith.

Around the nation, Southern California is expected to see significant rains while the Pacific Northwest will stay much drier than average. The Midwest will likely break a streak of harsh winters with warm and dry conditions this season. Severe weather and heavy rains will likely cause problems in Florida while the Appalachians and Northeast will see a harsh winter with several Nor’ Easters possible.

Ingredients Leading To This Winter’s Forecast

There are a few key factors that will impact the winter forecast. The biggest factor will be the development of a moderate El Nino. Another big factor impacting the forecast is the persistent negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), which is a deep trough over the eastern 1/2 of the country. This feature is one reason why we have had such a cold and wet late summer and fall thus far. Fall has been wet here at home but very wintery in eastern Canada where the snow pack is getting an early boost. This is very important because large areas of snow cover can turn a cool air mass into a frigid arctic blast that dives deep into the southern part of the United States. This could be a big warning sign for us, but more importantly it could lead to a harsh start to the winter for areas to our northeast. We are also in a deep solar minimum which globally leads to slightly cooler conditions compared to a solar maximum, this may or may not have an impact for us here at home.

Winter’s Of The Past

After taking all of this data we found 14 years since 1950 that have had similar set ups. Out of these 14 years, 7 of them had a similar summer and fall pattern compared to this year. These 7 winter seasons then became our analog years. This helped give us some insight into the upcoming winter’s forecast. Here are the averages of our 7 analog years.

The 7 analog years are 2004-05, 2002-03, 1994-95, 1991-92, 1976-77, 1969-70, and 1957-58. Out of these years 2004-05 and 1991-92 were 5.4 degrees and 3.8 degrees above normal respectively and nearly snow less in the river valley and significantly below average in northwest Arkansas. On the other hand 1976-77 and 2002-03 were 5.4 degrees and 3.0 degrees below normal respectively and 1976-77 dropped more than 3 times the winter’s average snowfall with a snow depth topping a foot for much of the viewing area for more than a week in January.

Detailed Forecast By Month

December

December will be a very active month with several powerful storm systems taking a southern track and moving toward the northeast. It will likely be warmer than normal here at home and wetter than average across the river valley with near average precipitation in northwest Arkansas. The Midwest will see warm and dry conditions. Below is what happened during our analog years.

January

The overall weather pattern across the country will be calmer in January with very cold weather developing. January will be colder than normal here at home with the Pacific Northwest staying very warm. Below is what happened with temperatures during our analog years.

February

Near seasonable weather is expected here at home with no clear signal to whether it will be an active month.

March

An active weather pattern takes back over the country in March with colder than normal conditions here at home. Precipitation is expected to be near average across Oklahoma and Arkansas. Below is what happened with precipitation during our analog years.

Ross Ellet

Ross Ellet

The tropics are still showing some signs of life with what was once Tropical Storm IDA.  IDA has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression, but all information is showing an increase in strength over the next 48 hours.  IDA could become a Tropical Storm again in the next 24 hours and as she moves into the Northwest Caribbean Sea.  The waters in the Gulf of Mexico are not quite as warm as they were just a few months ago, so it doesn’t look like she will have intensify into a major hurricane when she reaches the Gulf waters.  She will bring heavy rain and high surf along the entire Gulf Coastline into early next week.  Here is a look at the very latest information.

SATELLITE IMAGE

LATEST COMPUTER MODEL TRACKS

LATEST 5-DAY FORECAST

The latest forecast has IDA as a strong Tropical Storm when she moves closer to the Florida panhandle early Wednesday morning.  With IDA eating up all the Gulf moisture that means less moisture to move into our region out ahead of a cold front next week.  Our storm chances have weakened significantly with the latest path of IDA.

BLOG ENTRY BY: PATRICK CRAWFORD (11-6  3:30AM)