We have a major cold blast on the way for later this week.  A strong area of high pressure will move directly over the area by Thursday morning.  This high will provide a clear sky and light winds…perfect ingredients this time of year for extremely cold temperatures.  The next question…will we set any records?

THURSDAY MORNING

The best chance for record tying or breaking temperatures will be in NW Arkansas, so record lows in the River Valley are safe Thursday morning. 

BLOG ENTRY BY: PATRICK CRAWFORD (12-7  8:00PM)

High pressure will move in for Thursday giving us a partly cloudy sky and very cold conditions for Thursday morning. The position of that high pressure area could be key for snow on Friday. Right now the forecast models are moving the area of high pressure over the Midwest. If this is the case the high will set up as a blocking high keeping the approaching storm system from taking a turn to the north. Also, it will be key in keeping the cold air mass around the area.

At the same time our next disturbance will move out of the Texas panhandle late overnight Thursday into Friday morning. A southerly flow, rich in moisture, will overrun the cold air mass. This will create precipitation, mainly north of the warm front. At this time it appears the precipitation type would be in the form of snow with a rain/snow mix possible south of I-40.

The image below is the GFS 12z (6am) Friday surface map. I placed the rain/snow line on the map as well. According to this model run it would run along I-40.

We will keep an eye out on this system. A word of caution if you are a snow lover, the system is still several days out which means the track of either the low pressure area or high pressure area could change in the coming days. If this is the case it will certainly lead to a change in the forecast. Also out of the 3 medium range models we look at, only 2 of them are showing this scenario. The other computer model has a dry day for the area.

Ross Ellet

I know what you are thinking, Blizzard…In Arizona?? When most people think of Arizona  they think of cactus and triple digit heat. As it turns out, some areas of the state are void of both through out the year. Areas near flagstaff, AZ are a perfect example with elevations of 7,000 feet +. Regardless, blizzard conditions of this magnitude are still very rare. The forecast calls for snow totals up to 30″ and up to 60 mph wind gusts. You could blame the powerful early winter storm on El Nino. During an El Nino winter, storms take a more southerly track and that is exactly what is taking place this winter so far.

So how does this effect Arkansas and Oklahoma?

The same storm system bringing blizzard conditions from the Mexican border to the Canadian border will bring us rain and some possible flurries. The rain will begin around mid day on Tuesday as a warm front moves to the north. Highs on Tuesday will rebound near 50 degrees. However, a big blast of cold air arrive by the morning hours on Wednesday. Along with this blast of cold air a few snow flurries are expected mainly in northwest Arkansas. Below is the GFS computer model image for Wednesday morning which shows the flurries occurring all the way down to I-40.

Ross Ellet

Areas of drizzle and mist are showing up over the area, but temperatures are still above freezing…so we are not looking any freezing rain or drizzle for tonight.  Surface temperatures should fall close to freezing by Monday morning.  If any drizzle is still taking place it could be in the form of freezing drizzle and that could lead to some very isolated slick spots on the bridges and over passes.  This is something we will be watching closely throughout the night, but as of the moment we want to stress that we are not looking at a major winter weather event.

BLOG ENTRY BY: PATRICK CRAWFORD (12-6 5PM)

Beware Monday morning commuters, some slick spots are possible.  Light rain will develop late on Sunday afternoon and evening across the entire area. Overnight Sunday in northwest Arkansas the temperature will fall below the freezing mark at the ground. The temperature profile aloft would not support snow but rather freezing drizzle for the early morning hours on Monday. Here is a look at the early morning vertical temperature profile.

The low-levels of the atmosphere near the surface are saturated while the mid levels have lots of dry air (this prevents ice nuclei from forming snow). A temperature inversion overnight also helps to trap the low level moisture. The combination is a classic set up for drizzle. The concern is that the surface temperature will fall below freezing and this could cause ice spots to develop on bridges and overpasses in northwest Arkansas. At this time it appears that the river valley will stay above freezing most if not all of the overnight period which will hinder slick spots from forming.

Ross Ellet

Ross Ellet

A clear sky and light winds for Friday night will lead to temperatures close to 20° below average Saturday morning.  Here is a look at the cloud forecast for Saturday morning.

The latest data is showing a shift in our winds to the South by Saturday afternoon and that will help temperatures rebound closer to average.

SURFACE MAP (SATURDAY AFTERNOON)

TEMPERATURE FORECAST (SATURDAY AFTERNOON)

Factor in the sunshine and Saturday should turn out to be much nicer than it was Friday afternoon.

BLOG ENTRY BY: PATRICK CRAWFORD (12-4 9:00PM)

Take a look at this morning’s lows. Everyone was below the freezing mark and most had a very cold morning in the upper teens and low 20s.

Overnight tonight it will be even colder. Here are the forecasted lows and record lows for overnight Tonight.

Ross Ellet

The weather could be interesting next week with a system moving into the area  Tuesday night.  If we get any precipitation out of this system it could be in the form of snow by Wednesday morning.  The extremely cold air that we are dealing with now will make ground temperatures conducive for some possible accumulation.  Here is the latest.

UPPER LEVEL MAP (WEDNESDAY MORNING)

LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE MAP (WEDNESDAY MORNING)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (WEDNESDAY MORNING)

At the moment the upper level energy and low-level temperatures are coming together to give us a good chance for some light snow on Wednesday morning.  It’s still too far out to tell how much snow will be possible, but keep checking the most detailed weather blog in the area for the latest updates.

BLOG ENTRY BY: PATRICK CRAWFORD (12-3  7:00PM)

The arctic air mass is still flowing into the area. Temperatures this morning are in the mid to upper 20s and highs this afternoon will only make it into the upper 30s to low 40s. Overnight tonight high pressure moves a little closer, the winds go calm, and the sky will be clear. This is the perfect recipe for bone-chilling cold conditions. The cold weather is not expected to break any records but it could come close.

Ross Ellet