Midnight Update….. April 30, 2012

We are still watching a complex of showers and storms moving across Kansas and northern Oklahoma tonight.  These storms started as individual supercells along a boundary, and now they have evolved into a mesoscale convective complex (mcs).  These complexes become elevated in time, and get fueled by the low-level jet.

The big question still remains, will the southern part of this complex hold together and move into our area?  Our local RPM still brings it into the area between 3 am and 5 am; however, we do expect an overall weakening by the time it gets here.  Some strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall are still forecast.  The tornado watch remains out until 2 am.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

10:30 P.M. Update April 30, 2012

The tornado watch remains in effect until 2 a.m.  Our local RPM model keeps the showers and storms to the west through 2 a.m.  There’s a good chance that the tornado watch will expire by the time the showers and storms actually move in.

Notice the showers and storms to the south of Wichita.  They are starting to turn southeast and will make a run at our area late tonight. 

Overall the storms will continue to weaken as they move in our direction.  We are thinking these storms will have some brief gusty winds and some small hail.  By the time they get here the tornado threat should be minimal.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Tornado Watch Until 2 a.m. April 30, 2012

 

   
   TORNADOES…HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 75 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
   MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MONETT
   MISSOURI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
  
   REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

24 Hour Rainfall Totals April 30, 2012

Here are some rainfall totals from the last 24 hours.  More storms are expected overnight into Tuesday morning!

Drew Michaels

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Evening Update…..More Storms Overnight April 30, 2012

Scattered showers and storms are still possible across SE OK and SW AR this evening.  Most of these storms will die out after the sun goes down; however, we’re expecting more storms to develop after midnight.

A stalled out boundary will move north and act as a focus for showers and storms after midnight.  Some of the storms may contain some small hail.  The storms could linger into your morning commute before clearing out during the rest of the afternoon.  Highs on Tuesday will soar into the 80′s!

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Monday Showers April 30, 2012

Wet start to the Monday work week. Much needed rain fell across the area. The Rain and T Storms will move out of Northwest Arkansas around 1pm. Fort Smith should start to see the rain end by 3 pm this afternoon.

Tonight could see another round of Rain during the overnight hours. Expected Rain Fall Totals 1 inch for Fayetteville, 1.25″ for Fort Smith, and over 2″ in Mena.

Tuesday Morning could see a few showers and clouds.By mid Tuesday morning should see the Sun Return and a Warming Trend. By the weekend could see Low 90′s in the Fort Smith River Valley and Upper 80′s in Northwest Arkansas.

Monday Monday April 30, 2012

Stationary Front and a Low continues to hang North of Northwest Arkansas. A line of Showers and Thunderstorms this morning should push into the area closer to the 6:30 am. The showers will bring heavy rains, gusty winds, and possibly small hailstones. The rains will exit by early afternoon leaving a few spotty showers. High’s in the mid 70′s.

May see another round of rain later tonight into the overnight hours Tuesday morning. Cloud and Rain mix for Tuesday morning before a warming trend controls our weather Wednesday into the Weekend.

Storm Chances for Monday April 29, 2012

From Meteorologist Rick Katzfey:  A weak front over southern Missouri will begin to lift away from us by late Monday.  Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening over eastern Oklahoma.  This area of rain should begin to slowly shift east toward the Arkansas border late tonight.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Monday morning and again Monday afternoon as leftover boundaries from that dying complex of storms sets off new development.  Highest chances appear to be over Northwest Arkansas with lesser chances in the River Valley.

Storm Chances April 28, 2012

From meteorologist Rick Katzfey:  A stalled front has caused severe weather in the St. Louis area this afternoon.  This front will not get much closer to us and will likely drift back west tonight.  Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered along and north of the front so better chances for rain will be across Missouri, southeast Kansas, and middle parts of Oklahoma tonight and the next couple of days.

Weekend Forecast Update April 27, 2012

At times this has been a very wishy-washy forecast.  Anytime you have some sort of stalled out boundary it becomes difficult to pin-point where and when the rain will occur.

Unfortunately this weekend fits that mold.  A surface front will move into the area Saturday morning into the afternoon.  The boundary will provide just enough of a focus for a few pop up showers and storms during the afternoon and evening.  We aren’t expecting widespread storms, so please don’t cancel the outdoor plans.

The forecast gets interesting late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  The front pushes back northwest of our area across NE OK.  Storms will likely fire late Saturday night along and north of that boundary going into Sunday morning.

There’s a chance that most of the area remains quiet for Sunday if the front stays to the  northwest.  Sunday night into Monday might be our best bet for more widespread showers and storms as the front moves back over the area.  Stay tuned!

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”