I’m going to piggyback off of Ross’ post from earlier today. Finally the GFS has shown some run to run consistency. The models are now trending slower with the passage of Monday’s cold front. The front looks to arrive late Monday evening into Tuesday morning.
That changes the forecast a lot. Instability will be maximized ahead of the cold front. The storms will erupt as the upper level support rolls across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The storm system will also increase the wind shear.
With this type of set-up, strong to severe storms are forecast to develop Monday evening. The strong wind shear would also support rotating storms capable of producing large hail and isolated tornadoes.
A lot can change with the timing of the next system, so keep checking the blog for further updates.
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