The overall pattern has been brining above average temperatures for about the last year. The question is can it slow down or reverse in time for summer?
A moderate to strong La Nina has been partially to blame for the mild conditions. That pattern is now weakening and is expected to dissolve completely by late April to early May. Neutral conditions are expected to remain for the summer with a slight chance for a weak El Nino developing around mid Summer. An El Nino brings our part of the country cooler than normal weather on most years.
Given the current set up, and expected pattern shifts for the summer, we don’t see a clear signal for either above average or below average temperatures. In theory, summer temperatures should be within a couple of degrees of the average.
On the other hand, the Climate Prediction Center is favoring another hot summer.
This is their current summer outlook which shows a 33% chance of above average temperatures. Tell us what you think in the poll at the top of this post. Summer officially begins on June 20th.
Ross Ellet
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How many summers in the last decade have been average or below average? It seems nearly all have been above to me
JP,
Just for you I looked up the stats over the past 10 years.
Here is how it breaks down. There have been 4 years that have been near average (+/- 1 degree of average). The years are 2002, 2003, 2008 and 2009. There has only been one year below average…but it was very chilly by comparison. The year was 2004 which was the 9th coolest summer on record. No surprise, there have been 5 years above average. 2005 was the 25th hottest summer, 2006 was the 20th hottest, 2001 was the 14th hottest, 2010 was the 4th hottest, and again no surprise here 2011 was the hottest ever on record.
Ross Ellet
Thanks, Ross! I just went through all of those years in the records on wxunderground. It must be that the last 2 summers have just left such a big impression on my memory.