Well the 12Z GFS wants all of the snow fans out there to get excited for some winter weather. As usual it’s the outlier, but it’s a fun scenario to watch.
The GFS cuts off an upper level low across the central plains by next Friday into Saturday. The cold air is forecast to wrap around the low by Saturday morning. The upper level support breaks out wraparound precipitation saturday morning into the afternoon.
The GFS is showing several inches of snow across northeastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas in this scenario. The River Valley would have a chance to see snow, but the majority of the QPF is north of I-40.
The European is not on board with this scenario; in fact, the Euro keeps the upper level wave over the desert southwest.
I’m just putting a 30% chance for precipitation for next Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. There’s way too much uncertainty at this point. I want to see this particular scenario over the next several runs. Stay tuned.
Drew Michaels
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Some indications (non CPC related) which use data interpolated from 1981 to 2010 that show the NAO presently negative and staying negative.
I’m interested to see whether the storm does in fact cut off and stay cut off (as depicted by the GFS) and to a more western extent, the ECMWF, which has a horrific bias for that this time of year, as much as the GFS has a bias for bombing out snowstorms over the lower 48 between hours 360 and 384.
Yet, there is a general consensus forming among the global models . . . a storm will likely come through, but its connection to the cold may be tenuous at best. Possibly ice if the cold air is shallow enough (which it appears to be) and undercuts an odd flow regime with the western ridge nosing in.
Oh please oh please let it snow!!! Let it be lots and lots of snow!!!!
Drew..Matt Ross what are the snow thoughts? still showing snow for next weekend?