Long Range Forecasts Feature Old Man Winter December 31, 2011

It is very, very early, but those early signs show the potential for a major pattern shift sometime around January 15th. This could lead to cold, snow, and ice around the middle to late January. Both the AO (Arctic Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) are expected to flip from positive to negative phase. This will allow the [...]

New Year’s Eve Forecast….. December 30, 2011

  The weather is looking good for all of the New Year’s Eve celebrations!  A cold front will arrive between 9 p.m. and 11 p.m.  The front will come through dry; however, colder temperatures will follow after midnight. A blast of colder air will settle in for New Year’s Day.  Highs in the 40′s and 50′s will [...]

2011 Had Lots Of Thunderstorms December 30, 2011

We have talked about the cold, heat, snow, floods, tornadoes, and earthquake extremes that happened in 2011 but we haven’t talked much about the individual thunderstorms that impacted our lives. The year started off with some thundersnow and thundersleet in early February. Training thunderstorms produced record floods and a record tornado season. Even though thunderstorms were very rare [...]

Clipper System…. December 29, 2011

A fast-moving clipper system has arrived just to the north of our area tonight.  Some light rain is falling across Missouri in association with this system.  A cold front will arrive late tonight into Friday morning, but we will remain dry. Other than a wind shift for Friday, 850 mb temperatures will remain warm, so temperatures will climb back [...]

December Ends Warm December 29, 2011

As the month of December comes to a close, the first month of winter has started off very warm. Fayetteville has had an average temperature around 40.5 degrees or 2.6 degrees above average. Meanwhile, Fort Smith has had an average temperature of 44.9 degrees which is 3.9 degrees above average. 2011 will end as one [...]

2011 Records…What a Year! December 28, 2011

Since we are in the last week of 2011, I wanted to look back on some of the most notable records of the year. In the Tulsa NWS area there were 75 recorded tornadoes.  That smokes the old record of 53.  On average eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas report about  20 tornadoes each year.  The summer of [...]

Old Man Winter Is On An Extended Vacation December 28, 2011

The current weather pattern is keeping the arctic air trapped into Canada and the latest weather data suggests it may be a while before it shifts into the United States. The jet stream not only remains to far to the north but it is a Pacific flow meaning it is carrying a more mild flow from [...]

Compressional Heating….Great Forecast December 27, 2011

Well compared to the wild weather we experienced in 2011, this last week of the year is a yawner; and I like it!  Quiet and warmer weather will be the rule over the next several days thanks to a zonal flow aloft.  For Thursday and Friday you can thank the jetstream for the nice bump in temperatures. The [...]

Short Term Forecast / Today Into The Weekend… December 27, 2011

After a dreary Monday with widespread showers during the morning and afternoon, the system that brought that weather continues moving east out of the area…leaving behind sunny and dry conditions for this afternoon. Some higher level cirrus clouds could move in during the late afternoon and into the evening, but I’m expecting a lot of [...]

4:30 P.M. Update…. December 26, 2011

No real changes from what Matt was thinking earlier this morning.  The bulk of the moisture will be moving east by the time the cold air advection begins. We will continue a chance for a light wintry mix or flurries across northwest Arkansas later this evening; however, no accumulations are expected. Light rain or drizzle will [...]