Archive for September, 2011

Is This The Calm Before The Storm?
September 30, 2011

Enjoy it while it is here! The perfect weather will not last all the way through October. A La Nina-like pattern is heating up and the storms are lining up. In fact the first storm will arrive by late Friday and Saturday. It is early, but a few severe storms are not out of the question and heavy rain could return as well. Here is one of the computer models showing heavy rainfall on Saturday, October 8th.

That is just storm number 1. The active pattern will likely bring above normal rainfall during the middle part of October.

Ross Ellet

Follow us on twitter “4029weather”

BEAUTIFUL Weekend Forecast!
September 30, 2011

With influence from surface high pressure around the Central Plains as well as a ridge aloft, expect a calm and beautiful weekend ahead with comfortable temperatures and plenty of sunshine. Dry air is in place too (at multiple layers), meaning no chances for rain AND little to no cloud cover! Most locations will remain into the 70s this weekend with a couple spots, mainly around the River Valley, topping out into the 80s. Worth noting that with clear skies, light winds, and that dry air…temperatures will drop into the 30s across some of NW Arkansas tonight into Saturday morning  (possibly Sunday morning too!).  Patchy frost is possible within some our cooler communities. Definitely will want to enjoy this weekend coming up because the start of next weekend could be a bit soggy.

Matt Devitt

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Weekly Fall Foliage Update
September 29, 2011

Most of the area is still very green, but the trees are slowly getting ready for the colorful fall show. A colorful fall depends on the right weather, cool mornings and warm afternoons. We have had an abundance of perfect weather and the forecast looks very good over the next couple weeks to keep turning the colors more vibrant. The expected fall foliage peaks are above. The latest fall foliage update from Arkansas.com is below.

September 29, 2011

 Northwest/North Central – Signs of color are showing in early-changing understory foliage such as the dogwood, sweetgum, blackgum, and sumac. See a longer list of early-changing Arkansas foliage below, along with the colors to expect. Predicted peak of color: Late October/Early November

Central Arkansas/Ouachita Mountains – Early signs of fall color are just beginning to show. Predicted peak of color: Early November

Southern/Eastern Arkansas — Little change is visible this week. Predicted peak of color: Early to Mid November

Comments:  Northwest and north central Arkansas foliage has just started to change, but the peak is not likely to occur in this region until the end of October. Sunny days with highs around 65-70 and cool nights with lows below 45 are ideal conditions for fall color development. Our weekly reports will include adjusted predictions of when foliage will peak in each region, along with suggested areas and highway routes.

Foliage that changes early in Arkansas: The following plants react strongly to fewer hours of sunlight as autumn days grow shorter, and begin changing early. Changes occur around this time every year, as they are probably influenced less by weather conditions: blackgum (red), sassafras (red, orange, or yellow), sweetgum (red, yellow, or purple), red maple (red, yellow, or orange), dogwood (brownish red), poison ivy and poison oak (red), Virginia Creeper (red), sumac (red), buckeye (yellowish brown), walnut (yellow) and American Wild Plum (yellow).

Next report: October 6, 2011

Ross Ellet

Follow us on twitter “4029weather”

Bikes, Blues & BBQ Forecast…
September 29, 2011

Thanks to a cool front moving through  the area during the afternoon hours, a tight pressure gradient will set-up…so expect breezy conditions once the front moves out of your area. Winds could top 20-25 mph. If you’re heading out to Bikes, Blues & BBQ this evening, here’s the forecast below:

Bring a light jacket if you’re heading to the event as temperatures will drop off quickly after sunset. That strong North wind will usher in cooler/drier air, with temperatures 10-15 cooler for your Friday.  As winds back off late Friday and high pressure builds in just to the North (with also dry air & clear skies), expect a chilly start to your Satuday morning with lows in the upper 30s across some of NW Arkansas. Even lows finally into the 40s around most (if not all) of Fort Smith / River Valley could very well be possible. This is going to be a BEAUTIFUL weekend ahead, one of the best of the year, so make sure to get out and enjoy it with all that sunshine and comfortable temperatures coming up!

Matt Devitt

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Fort Smith Air Show Forecast…..
September 28, 2011

Just beautiful weather this weekend for the Fort Smith Air Show.  A cold front will drop temperatures for the start of the weekend; however, we’re expecting plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 70′s. 

I’m excited because I will be flying with the United States Air Force Thunderbirds Friday morning, and the weather won’t be an issue for my flight.  I will have the video of my flight at 5 and 6 Friday night!

One thing you don’t want to forget is your sunblock.  The sun angle remains stout, so without the proper precautions, you could easily get a sunburn.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Friday Night Game Of The Week Weather Preview
September 28, 2011

Well it has been absolutely beautiful over the past several days and for this weekend? No different. A cool front will move through during the 2nd half of the day on Thursday, bringing in more Fall-like temperatures and drier air. For Friday afternoon, a tight pressure gradient will set-up across the area (thanks to a fairly decent high pressure system around the Plains)…leading to breezy conditions that should ease off by Friday evening. Speaking of Friday evening, our Game of The Week Prairie Grove at Farmington, make sure to bring the light jacket as temperatures are expected to fall quickly during the course of the game. Here is the (dry) forecast preview below:

Matt Devitt

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Warm Fall Outlook…….
September 27, 2011

It’s hard to believe October is just a few days away.  After a gorgeous week the beautiful DRY weather will continue into the weekend.  The overall forecast for October is for warmer than average temperatures thanks to a ridge of high pressure.  A trough across the northeast should keep temperatures below average.

The Climate Prediction Center for the next several months keeps the unseasonably warm temperatures across our area.  Specifically we have a 40% chance for above average temperatures.  Folks across Texas just can’t get a break.  Dry and warm conditions will only increase the drought and fire threat!

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Thursday Cool Front Will Keep Conditions Beautiful Into The Weekend!
September 27, 2011

It has been absolutely beautiful over the past several days thanks to high pressure in control and dry air in place around the entire area. That same dry air is the reason for the cool mornings and warm afternoons. Now on Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will warm up (briefly) into the 80s and even 90s, temperatures above average for this time of the year. Before conditions continue to heat up, a cool front is scheduled to move in on Thursday that will bring back down our temperatures to more Fall-like numbers. As the cool front approaches our area, it’ll have very little moisture to work with (dry air mass in place), so expect slim to none rain chances during the frontal passage.

 Once the front does move through, you’ll definitely feel it outside with beautiful and sunny conditions expected on Friday and all the way into the start of next week. This weekend ahead could be one of the best weekends of the year…So you might want to make those outdoor plans (if you haven’t already)…it’s going to be an amazing weekend!

Matt Devitt

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Hail Damage Pictures From Arkansas
September 26, 2011

Yesterday some wild damaging storms developed across southeastern Arkansas.  These storms produced some tornadoes and also some impressive hail stones.  Teacup size hail did damage and here are some of the pictures above.

We usually experience a mini-severe weather season across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas during the fall.  Thankfully we don’t have any storm chances in the forecast this week.  Keep checking back on the blog this fall for your severe weather updates. 

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Tropical Update – Philippe Another “Fish” Storm?
September 26, 2011

Believe it or not, we are ALREADY at the letter “P” when it comes to the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This morning Tropical Storm Philippe was still holding on to a fairly decent core according to the recent IR images. The storm is currently moving off towards the WNW at 12 mph with 60 mph winds. The storm is not projected to become a hurricane (currently) or impact the United States. Here is the projected path and the recent satellite imagery:

Matt Devitt

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

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