Archive for March, 2011

Another Slap In The Face By Old Man Winter
March 27, 2011

A new record low maximum was set today in Fayetteville. Assuming the high has already been set and we don’t warm any more, today’s high was 39 degrees in Fayetteville which breaks the previous record low maximum temperature of 41 degrees set back in 1955. Cooler weather will continue through Thursday with more rain expected on Tuesday and again on Thursday. The latest GFS and European are showing just rain for Thursday morning but the Canadian computer model suggests a rain/snow mix is possible. Here is the Canadian computer model for the Thursday time frame.

We will have to watch the potential for a few snowflakes mixing in, but even if that is the case, no accumulation or problems are expected. It is just another exclamation point to our very crazy winter.

Friday will start a quick and massive warm up. Highs will rebound into the 70s by next weekend.

Ross Ellet

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4:00 a.m. Update
March 26, 2011

The low-level jet continues to produce elevated showers and storms north of the warm front this morning.  Most of northwest Arkansas has been dry to this point; however, we do expect additional storms to fire throughout the rest of the morning.

Elevated storms will continue to pose a small hail threat.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

12:45 a.m. Update
March 25, 2011

Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across the area this morning.  These storms have shown some strengthening over the last hour or so.

Widespread severe weather is not expected tonight.  Dime size hail and strong gusty winds to 40 mph will be possible.  An isolated strong to severe storm capable of producing quarter size hail can’t be ruled out.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 6 a.m.
March 25, 2011

The SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch until 6 a.m.  Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop across eastern Oklahoma as the low-level jet cranks back up.

Hail will be the primary threats with the elevated storms.  Hail to the size of quarters are possible.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Storms Developing Tonight..6:30 p.m. Update
March 25, 2011

All has been quiet this early evening as the sky has gone from mostly cloudy to partly cloudy.  Temperatures have rebounded some with the sunshine.   Our area remains north of a warm front, which is not a favorable place for severe weather.

Scattered showers and storms will likely develop after 9 p.m. across northern Texas and the Ouachitas.  Those storms will spread north throughout the late evening and into the overnight.

While no watches have been issued at this time, there is a slight risk for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across SE OK and SW AR. 

The warm sector, or the area south of the warm front, continues to destabilize this evening.  Dewpoints there have jumped into the upper 50′s and lower 60′s.  Storms in the warm sector will likely become severe and move north.

I really think the severe threat if any will be confined across Polk, McCurtain, Pushmataha, and southern LeFlore counties.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

More Rain For Saturday
March 25, 2011

Another wave will move in on Saturday to provide additional showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for the rain will be mid morning through early afternoon. A cloudy sky will remain through Saturday evening before some clouds break up on Sunday and Monday. Highs over the weekend will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the area.

Ross Ellet

Follow us on twitter “4029weather”

Storms Arrive Late Tonight
March 24, 2011

After a dry and sometimes smokey afternoon, more storms will help clear the air late tonight into Friday morning.

A system to our west will slide a warm front across the Ouachitas by Friday morning.  Elevated storms to the north of the warm front will be possible after 2 a.m.  Those storms will generally be confined north of I-40 for your Friday morning commute.  The showers and storms should move out for lunch.

While widespread severe weather is not expected tonight, some storms fueled by the low-level jet could produce small hail.

The SPC has the area under a slight risk for severe storms for Friday late afternoon and evening.  Our confidence is rather low for this to occur.  The CAP is going to be strong in the warm sector Friday.  If storms can fire across the Ouachitas tomorrow evening, large hail and gusty winds would be the primary threats.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Much Cooler This Morning
March 24, 2011

Temperatures are starting off the day much colder this morning compared to yesterday. Over the past week, overnight lows have been closer to 60 degrees; today lows are in the upper 30s and 40s. Temperatures will stay a little cooler this afternoon with highs in the upper 50s in northwest Arkansas to the mid 60s in the river valley. On the bright side, sunshine will stick around with lighter winds.

Ross Ellet

Follow us on twitter “4029weather”

Fire Threat Eases for Thursday
March 23, 2011

 

High pressure will move in for Thursday, and that will help ease the fire threat.  Winds will remain up between 5 to 15 mph out of the northeast during the afternoon; however, we won’t expect the strong gusts that help to fan the flames.

That northeast flow will cool temperatures for Thursday afternoon.  Expect highs in the low to middle 60′s under a mostly sunny sky.

Drew Michaels

Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”

Gardeners Beware…
March 23, 2011

If the warm weather has you getting your green thumb ready you may need to relax just a little. While it is early enough to plant cool season crops in our area (vegetables that can tolerate a frost or light to moderate freeze), it is too early to plant warm season crops. The long-range maps have a trough digging across the eastern half of the country which will bring below average temperatures for late March and early April. The likelihood of a frost or freeze past the average date of April 1st in the river valley & Ouachitas is higher than normal. A little patience could go a long way to a healthy start to the growing season.

Ross Ellet

Follow us on twitter “4029weather”

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