The computer models continue to hint at the possibility for strong to severe storms this Thursday. Here’s the synoptic set-up for Thursday afternoon.
A surface area of low pressure will develop to our west on Wednesday. That low will continue to deepen and pull in warm and moist air from the Gulf. In response to the deepening low, a warm front will lift north across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by Thursday morning.
Once the warm front passes to our north we are considered to be in the warm sector; dewpoints will likely increase into the 50′s and 60′s by Thursday afternoon within the warm sector.
In addition to the warm and humid air for Thursday, we’ll be tracking a dry line to our west. This dry line separates the lower dewpoints to the west from the deeper Gulf moisture to the east. The dry line will likely be the main focus for strong to severe showers and storms by Thursday afternoon and evening.
The timing of this system still remains in question. If this system slows down we’ll expect a better chance for strong to severe storms by Thursday evening. Right now central Arkansas is in the highest risk for a severe weather outbreak. This forecast will change, so keep checking back for more updates.
Drew Michaels
Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”
Hey,Drew. Does 40/29 have a weather call system?
Dax,
Yes, there is more information on our website under the weather tab.
Ross Ellet
Is there a possibility that we could receive a lot of rain ahead of the dry line that may stabilize the air? Does it look like the tornado threat exists? I’m sure if it remains cloudy during the day that could help decrease the possibility .
Sarah,
Yes this is possible. There will likely be a round of storms early in the day as well.
Ross Ellet
Drew or Ross
This is my favorite time of yr as long as someone does not get hurt out of it. I can’t wait till it really gets rolling. I love watching the storm clouds move in and take vids and pics of it all. Are we looking that the storm could bring winter weather to the area or through with winter weather? WIth the dry line your talking about would the severe weather have to be sunlight enduced or is that more with the summer severe storms? ?