The computer models continue to hint at the possibility for strong to severe storms this Thursday. Here’s the synoptic set-up for Thursday afternoon.
A surface area of low pressure will develop to our west on Wednesday. That low will continue to deepen and pull in warm and moist air from the Gulf. In response to the deepening low, a warm front will lift north across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by Thursday morning.
Once the warm front passes to our north we are considered to be in the warm sector; dewpoints will likely increase into the 50′s and 60′s by Thursday afternoon within the warm sector.
In addition to the warm and humid air for Thursday, we’ll be tracking a dry line to our west. This dry line separates the lower dewpoints to the west from the deeper Gulf moisture to the east. The dry line will likely be the main focus for strong to severe showers and storms by Thursday afternoon and evening.
The timing of this system still remains in question. If this system slows down we’ll expect a better chance for strong to severe storms by Thursday evening. Right now central Arkansas is in the highest risk for a severe weather outbreak. This forecast will change, so keep checking back for more updates.
Follow us on Twitter at “4029weather”