The National Weather Service has issued a blizzard warning for all of southern Missouri and parts of Northeast Oklahoma including McDonald, and Delaware counties. Snowfall will top 12″ in those areas with winds gusting to 40 mph later tomorrow.
Ross Ellet
Follow us on twitter “4029weather”
Will NW ARK be issued a Blizzard Warning like the Tulsa and Missouri areas are under right now? why or why not?
No.
Because there’s no chance of a blizzard in NWA.
You should read more and post less questions.
Wrong. They have blizzards at the DQ in Lowell.
Will Gravette see snow and ice more like the rest of NW Arkansas or Southern Missouri?
Sam,
9-12″ is expected in snow with 1/4″ of ice accumulation.
Ross Ellet
Are you expecting that Gravette will receive snow and ice more like NW AR or Southern MO?
Gravette will likely see less ice compared to snow. 8″ to 12″ of sleet and snow is likely in your area.
Drew Michaels
What are you thinking for Ft Smith?
Tenth of an inch of ice and 1″ to 3″ inches of snow in Fort Smith.
Drew Michaels
How much snow/ice/sleet is expected in Fayetteville?
Fayetteville…..1/2″ to 1.00″ of ice with 5″ to 9″ of snow.
Drew Michaels
Hey guys. I was wondering how much snow and ice is expected for Bentonville? I can’t tell if we are on the higher side of snow totals or not, the line seems to be close if not right through the middle of benton county?
I would say 9″ to 12″ of sleet and snow in Bentonville/Bella Vista.
Drew Michaels
when does the next models come out?
The next model I really want to look at is the 0Z run of the NAM. That won’t be out until around 8 p.m.
Drew Michaels
Thanks for your frequent and thorough blog posts. It is very helpful to have updated information. I really appreciate it!
Do you think Rogers Schools will be closed tomorrow? And how hard do you think Rogers will get “hit”?
We went to Aldi’s today and you would think an Apocalypse was hitting us the way people were shopping! A little old lady rammed me with her shopping cart 3 times!!!
BTW, You guys are doing a terrific job keeping us updated on this! Keep up the great work!!!!
Yes I think Rogers will be closed at some point tomorrow. Rogers could see 8″ to 10″ of snow with a quarter inch of ice.
Drew Michaels
the updated nws winter storm warning has leflore county get 4-8 inches of snow and up to .5 inches of ice what do you think
Some spots in western LeFlore may pick up on some of those higher totals. It’s going to be close.
Drew Michaels
is benton county going to be affected by the blizzard warning?
At this point I doubt Benton will be impacted by the blizzard warning. They will be just under the criteria.
Drew Michaels
The national weather service has Fort Smith in the 4-8 inch snow range and about a quarter inch of ice! I do think that may be a little on the high side? What is your thinking at the moment?
I agree with the ice, but I’m not sure about the snow totals. They may be a bit high.
Drew Michaels
What does it look like for Holiday Island / Eureka Springs area?
Holiday Island will likely pick up on 8″ to 10″ inches of snow with up to a half inch of ice.
Drew Michaels
For Drew or Ross what exactly do the temperature differences have to be from freezing rain to snow? And is that all that is involved is temperature?
Kristi,
The temperture profile from the surface to aloft has to be below freezing for snow to occur. Freezing rain occurs when there is a shallow pocket of cold air at the surface.
Drew Michaels
Any chance the I40 corridor could be added to the three to five inch totals?
It’s possible but we’re sticking with 1″ to 3″ for the majority of the River Valley. West along I-40 in eastern Oklahoma the totals will be higher.
Drew Michaels
What has to happen for Benton county to be impacted by a “Blizzard Warning”?
The winds need to forecast to be sustained or gusting consistently at 35 mph. We’re looking at 20 to 25 so they will probably fall short.
Drew Michaels
What are the NAM and GFS models you refer to? Thanks for the updates!
Chris,
Thos are two different numerical computer models we use to build a forecast.
Drew Michaels
What should i expect in Harrison?
0.25″ to 0.50″ of ice with 6″ to 10″ of snow.
Drew Michaels
Bless your hearts. You’re working your back-ends off & are still kind enough to take the time to answer all of our questions.
I see the blizzard warning out for McDonald county, I live about 5-10 min from there, but am still in Bella Vista. Will that warning affect us?
Really guys, you’re the BEST weather men!
It’s very comforting to have your blogs that keep us so informed.
Thank you!
Marian,
I think that blizzard warning will stay just to your northwest. Strong winds over 20 mph are expected in Bella Vista for tomorrow.
Drew Michaels
What can I expect here in Blue Eye, AR (northern Carroll county)?
Thanks.
0.50″ of ice and possibly 8″ to 12″ of sleet and snow in Blue Eye.
Drew Michaels
how much ice/snow will jasper,ar get?
You guys could see 0.50″ to 1.00″ of ice with 5″ to 9″ of snow and sleet in Jasper.
Drew Michaels
What is your thoughts on the Mountainburg area on ice and snow?
Thanks
Erik
Erik,
0.25″ to 0.50″ of ice and 4″ to 6″ of snow.
Drew Michaels
What do you see happening for Russellville tomorrow?
Russellville is tricky. I would say a glaze to a tenth of an inch of ice with 1″ to 3″ of sleet and snow.
Drew Michaels
Thanks for all the updates! We are hoping for a lot of snow in Siloam!
Thank you for all of your hard work! We appreciate all of the time and effort that you guys put into this! I’m sending you a great big “pat on the back”!
Wow! Drew and Ross- You two have been so kind, thorough and informative today as you help everyone plan and prepare for the storm. Thank you so much for your knowledge, expertise and generous help!
You all are very welcome! We’re trying to keep up with everything.
Drew Michaels
What is Rogers looking at now
Brandon,
There have been no major hanges to the thinking on Rogers. I would plan on a 0.50″ to 1.00″ of ice with 7″ to 10″ of sleet and snow.
Drew Michaels
You guys are the best! I am becoming slightly obsessed with this blog! Thanks for all you guys do! Looking forward to seeing how things turn out.
Drew,
I have come up with a great idea. 4029TV should have a roll over for snow amounts and ice amounts on the website. I bet this would eleviate some posts..you could also use CoCoRAS for continual updates during an event..that what I would do
By the Way Pea Ridge forecast: Sunny and 75..light winds and low humidity..
Can you explain the sharp cut off line from snow in van buren to fort smith? Your calling 3-5 in van buren and 1-3 in fort smith! I heard channel 5 say there may be a dry slot that cuts off some of the snow amounts in the southern counties. Is that a possibility and thats maybe why the fort smith area wont see as much?
The dry slot is possible; however, Fort Smith tends to be warmer than locations just to the north with these systems. We have seen cut offs like this before. The models are only painting around 2″ of sleet and snow in Fort Smith. That’s where we are basing our thinking.
Drew Michaels
Which do you think is more accurate the NAM or the GFS? I just looked at both and the GFS has a lot more snow coming our way.
We have taken a blend of the both. They have been rather similar with this event.
Drew Michaels
It maybe me looking at the wrong feature, but it looks like the system may be digging a little further south than anticipated. Or am i wrong?
We’ll look at the 0Z to see if the storm is dropping south.
Drew Michaels
What do you think the Morrow-Canehill area will look like tomorrow morning?
0.50″ to 1.00″ of ice with 5″ to 9″ of sleet and snow in your part of the county.
Drew Michaels
what about deer,ar / pelsor, ar area?
Deer will likely see a 0.50″ to 1.00″ of ice with 5″ to 9″ of sleet and snow.
Drew Michaels
What are you expecting for Stilwell? Snow or Ice? How much?
1/2″ to 1.00″ of ice with 8″ to 10″ of snow and sleet.
Drew Michaels
What do you think the east side of Bella Vista looks to have in ice and snow? Also…what does the system shifting south do to these totals??
Those totals of sleet and snow may go up if the system pulls south. Regardless, folks in Bella Vista need to prepare for 0.25″ to 0.50″ of ice with 8″ to 10″ of snow and sleet.
Drew Mihcaels
I just want to say a HUGE THANK YOU!! You guys work so hard and I want you to know it is much appreciated!! Thanks again!!
how much snow and ice does it look like Gentry, Arkansas will get?
8″ to 12″ of snow and sleet with 0.25″ to 0.50″ of ice.
Drew Michaels