Here are the snow timelines for both Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley. The accumulations on the graphics show the total accumulation expected by that time. Notice everything will start off light but really become heavy after 9am on Thursday.
I apologize for not getting these posted earlier today. As you can probably imagine it has been a crazy day in the weather center so far. We will be keeping the blog updated more frequently over the next 24 hours. Drew will have another update by 3pm and at least another update this evening. Both of us will have several updates overnight and tomorrow as well.
Ross Ellet
Follow us on twitter “4029weather”
Thank you for keeping us posted! We appreciate it!(My son is praying for a snow day, lol)
We sure appreciate the work you guys do. I always count on your forcasts. You guys are awesome!
Are there going to be any ice/freezing rain accumulations in the area (Bella Vista, Bentonville)? Enough or any at all that may pose driving concerns in the morning?
Corwin,
There might be a brief window early in the morning from 3am till 6am of a wintry mix; however, most of the issues throughout the morning will be snow related.
Drew Michaels
Do you expect Fort Smith to be closer to the 3″ estimate?
Drake,
The 12Z data really supports some higher totals of 2 to 3 inches across the River Valley. I think that area will see some decent accumulating snow from 11 am till about 3 p.m.
Drew Michaels
I just wanted to say a huge thank you, too, for this blog. I’ve been following for a year and so greatly appreciate having this up to date information! Thank you.
Rachel,
Glad you enjoy it. It helps us tell the story.
Drew Michaels
I agree – this site has been a huge help to me. (although I’m still not sure what a 00z NAM is…
)
Side question –
What’s the best way for us to get pictures of weather events to you?
Jason,
The 0Z means 6 p.m. :>) 12Z means 6 a.m. Those are the two times a day the NWS sends up weather balloons. That data is crunched in a computer and we get the results! Upload them to ulocal but also e-mail us at weather@4029tv.com
Drew Michaels
I was looking at one model and it is saying 6 to 8 http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
I wouldn’t be surprised if spots in NW AR see over 7 inches!
Drew Michaels
Brandon,
I just want to point out the fact that the link you provided includes snowfall from Sunday’s (1/23) possible snow storm. This looks to drop an addition 2-4″ across the 40/29 coverage area.
David Goines
Is this storm moving slower or faster and will that effect the snow totals? Compared to what NOAA said how do you all differ in what your opinion of what will happen from your data then from what NOAA has said.
There’s not a lot of difference between our forecasts. The speed really isn’t a factor. All of the the dynamics are in place for decent snow to occur.
Drew Michaels
18z NAM brings the heavier snow even further south it looks like.
I agree we are going to need to up totals in the River Valley. I’ll have an update after 3 p.m.
Drew Michaels
Drew,
More moisture, but 15z SREF still doesn’t bring 5400line to/through FSM until ~noon tomorrow, dynamic cooling may help expedite the c/o…
Ryan,
I think that cooling will help expidite the process; at least that’s what I’m basing my forecast on.
Drew Michaels
Hey Drew!
Glad to have you back!
I live in Bella Vista, almost on the MO border. Am I in the 3″-6″ totals or will it be higher in this area? I’m hoping for a lot of snow! I’m so excited we’ll finally have something big enough to play in than just an inch or two or even just ice.
Thanks for all you guys do to keep us so up-to-date.
Do your best to push as much of the beautiful white stuff our way…Lol!
I was on vacation in Chicago visiting family, so I’m bringing the winter weather! :>) Looking like 5″ to 7″ in your area.
Drew Michaels
Fort Smith needs to be under a warning…look at this new data
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/tsa/gfe/StormSnowAmt.png
Jake,
I am not saying things can’t change because we both know they can…but that image above is misleading. It is adding in this weekends snowfall as well which could be significant.
Ross Ellet
18z Nam…is interesting. Borderline with temps in FSM at first though.
I agree on the interesting part, and I think the HPC is hedging that thermal profiles won’t allow all .5″+ to fall as snow; hence, the low to no risk of 4″ on Day 1 for the RV. NWA is in the moderate; however, they are banking in greatest accums. still staying north in MO where 850mb front and better ratios exist.
My wife is in Tulsa and has to drive back to Fayetteville this evening. Do you think the roads will still be okay at 8 pm? 10 pm? As always, thanks for your help and advice!
Tom,
I think she will be fine.
Drew Michaels
Do you think that there is any chance of power going out?
Tonya,
With the limited threat for ice accumulation I would think the threat would be low; however, heavy snow could cause some outages. That’s too tough to forecast!
Drew Michaels
Tornado watch just reported in Muskogee, Ok! This could get ugly..
So now in NWA is it going to be 5-7
Brandon that looks reasonable.
Drew Michaels
Does that model Brandon showed earlier indicate 12″ where that pink is for nw arkansas? and do u think anywhere in our area could rly see that much?
That seems too high. 7″ to 8″ seems more relaistic with the highest totals.
Drew
Hey Drew, Jake posted a PNG image of snow totals. You said that it’s basing on this weekends snow totals as well. . Are we gearing up for Winter Weather this weekend, as well as the one tomorrow?
Another wave moving in for Sunday…could be a repeat performance. Let’s get through this event and then we’ll focus on Sunday.
Drew Michaels
Thank you for all you so
when is the next update coming out?
Drew what about that tornado watch in northeast Oklahoma? I heard from some co-workers about it, everyone’s freaking out. thanks
Not sure what happened with that…yikes!
Drew
The change of temperature of air without transferring heat. In an adiabatic process compression results in warming, and expansion results in cooling. A mass of very cold, dry air that usually originates over the Arctic Ocean north of Canada and Alaska. Northwest Arkansas has been known to be region in which a temperature gradient exists on a constant pressure surface. Baroclinic zones are favored areas for strengthening and weakening systems.