10:45 Update January 31, 2011

Precipitation has already started to break out across portions of eastern and central Oklahoma this evening.  Thunderstorms are also being reported in those areas.  That shield of precipitation will continue to move east-northeast tonight. The bulk of the heavy precipitation will likely move in after 2 a.m.  Isolated showers and sleet will be possible through [...]

18Z NAM Update January 31, 2011

Well after looking over the 18Z data we really don’t have a lot of changes to the forecast.  I noticed the Fayetteville bufkit sounding wanted to paint a lot of sleet across northwest Arkansas than freezing rain.  Sleet is such an unstable precipitation type.  The slightest amount of warming or cooling can change the type of precipitation.  [...]

3:30pm Update: Blizzard Warning Issued January 31, 2011

The National Weather Service has issued a blizzard warning for all of southern Missouri and parts of Northeast Oklahoma including McDonald, and Delaware counties. Snowfall will top 12″ in those areas with winds gusting to 40 mph later tomorrow. Ross Ellet Follow us on twitter “4029weather”

3pm Update: Winter Storm Timelines January 31, 2011

We will have your updated snowfall totals coming up in the next couple hours. Ross Ellet Follow us on twitter “4029weather”

Noon Update January 31, 2011

We are just starting to go over the newest computer models right now. The storm has remained intact but the overall precipitation is increasing. This will lead to both significant icing and snowfall through the day tomorrow. We have yet to go through the thermal layer on both the NAM and GFS to see if [...]

Monday 6am Update: Historic Storm On Track January 31, 2011

A massive winter storm is on track, and for areas in northeast Oklahoma this storm may stick out in the history books. Lets get right down to it. There will be 4 threats with this storm and they will arrive in this order 1) ice, 2) snow, 3) winds, 4) cold. Here are the expected [...]

Monday 2am Update January 31, 2011

I am going through the 00z GFS and NAM in-depth as we speak. I will have a new update by 5:30am with the latest maps and forecast at the latest. As Damon mentioned there will be an extremely sharp cut off in ice and snow totals with this storm. Which also means there will be [...]

Preliminary Ice and Snow Forecast January 30, 2011

A rather difficult two-fold forecast.  After starting as rain, first will come the risk of ice.  Then the ice will be followed by the snow.  Here is a preliminary ice and snow accumulation map.  The gradient across our viewing area of only a little ice/snow will be close to areas that see a lot of [...]

Tuesday Timelines January 30, 2011

Our viewing area will be a battleground between significant ice with snow for some and little more than just a cold rain for others.  Benton County:  Initially starting as rain, but quickly changing to freezing rain.  Because temperatures will be close to or below the freezing mark while the heaviest precipitation is falling, this is [...]

12Z GFS & NAM Thoughts….Noon Update January 30, 2011

Thanks again to everybody posting your thoughts and comments on the blog.  Ross, Damon, and I are all taking time during the weekend to answer questions on the blog.  Please be patient if you’re waiting for an answer. I’m going to piggyback off of Ross’ blog entry from earlier this morning.  I just looked at the [...]