The morning storms have helped to stabilize our atmosphere. It has also pushed the outflow boundary much further to the south this afternoon. As a result the severe weather potential will stay low across the river valley and very low in northwest Arkansas. More storms could develop across the river valley later tonight and train through the area which could lead to heavy rainfall and perhaps some gusty winds. However these will remain the biggest threats. As for the fireworks forecast…it is tricky. At this time it appears that northwest Arkansas will stay mostly dry, however scattered thunderstorms will continue across the river valley. Many fireworks displays will likely be able to get off the ground between storms, however it will be a wait and see situation. Here is the NAM computer model showing tonight’s storms. The first image is showing the accumulated rainfall before 7pm.
The second image is showing the accumulated rainfall between 7pm and 1am tonight.
Ross Ellet
