Big forecast changes have occurred since yesterday. The cold front that was advertised to spark off showers and storms during the evening has moved further south. Showers and storms have already developed this morning across NE OK and NW AR.
Look for showers and storms throughout northwest Arkansas during the rest of the afternoon. The severe weather threat will be low; however, locally heavy rainfall may become an issue. Expect .25″ to 1.00″ of rain. By this evening the rain should be moving out, so hopefully the fireworks will be ok.
The River Valley and south is a different story. Showers and storms will have a better chance of becomingstrong to severe during the afternoon along I-40 and south with an increase amount of instability. Numerous outflow boundaries will serve as a focus for showers and storms this afternoon. CAPE values have already jumped to near 3,000 J/KG across SE OK.
Large hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. Fireworks displays may be in jeopardy with the scattered nature of the storms.
Drew Michaels
What causes an outflow boundary? Is there anymore rain expected for NW Arkansas?
Josh,
Thunderstorms produce outflow boundaries when the rain cooled air races out ahead of a thunderstorm. A few more scattered showers or perhaps a thunderstorm is possible later tonight. However, most of the activity will remain across the river valley and areas further south.
Ross Ellet