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Isolated storms are still moving south this evening toward the River Valley. These storms still have the possibility of producing dime to nickel size hail and gusty winds up to 60 mph. Those storms will be moving closer to Ft. Smith and Van Buren near 7:00 p.m.
Storms should start to dissipate with the setting of the sun.
Drew Michaels
Showers and storms have developed this afternoon along a slow moving frontal boundary. These storms have had the history of producing quarter size hail and gusty winds to 60 mph. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 9:00 p.m.
Sunshine has helped to destabilize the atmosphere this afternoon. High CAPE values of 3,000. High CAPE values are a good indicator of updraft strength. The stronger updrafts can support largere hail stones.
Dry air aloft will also contribute to evaporational cooling aloft. This type of cooling can cause strong downdrafts that may exceed 60 mph at the surface.
Drew Michaels
We are under a slight risk for severe storms today. Thanks to a stationary front that will be moving over the region today we could see a few strong storms with hail and damaging winds. Here is the latest severe weather outlook for today:
SEVERE WEATHER RISK
TORNADO OUTLOOK
DAMAGING WINDS OUTLOOK
SEVERE HAIL OUTLOOK
BLOG ENTRY BY PATRICK CRAWFORD (6/30 3:36 AM)
We’re sitting in a very interesting pattern right now. Talk about being in between pressure regions. There’s a dominant area of high across the southwest, while the northeast sits under an area of low pressure.
That means we’re in a northwest flow pattern that will help provide an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. The greatest chances for showers and storms per the GFS model look to be Saturday and Sunday.
Could mother nature provide some fireworks for the 4th? We’ll watch it and let you know.
Drew Michaels
We could see a few isolated rain chances Tuesday with a cold front moving in from the Northeast. This front is not extremely strong and we are not expecting anything severe. Also, our air is much drier thanks to our weekend cold front. Any amount of rain we could get right now will help out with all the fireworks that will be taking place throughout the week.
TUESDAY SURFACE MAP
PRECIPITATION FORECAST (TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
BLOG ENTRY BY: PATRICK CRAWFORD (6/29 10:00 AM)
Below are the highs on Saturday and Sunday. The heat dropped off by almost 10 degrees across the northern part of our area while the southern part continued to bask in the heat. However, cooler air is pooring into the area and the dewpoints are dropping. As a result it will feel much better over the next couple days. Lows overnight will drop to the mid 50s to low 60s. The humidity will remain low over the next couple of days. Rain chances will increase by late week.
Ross Ellet
100 degrees was a common temperature Saturday afternoon across the river valley. Fort Smith reached 101 degrees, which was 1 degree away from the record high and it just happened to be the hottest June day dating back to 1988. Dewpoint temperatures this evening have jumped to 76 degrees in Fayetteville and 78 degrees in Russellville which is by far the hottest and most humid day of the heat wave. On the other hand, relief is marching ever so closer. Below is the satellite and radar composite as of 10:20 pm on Saturday.
The severe weather will continue to head northeast overnight tonight. However a few showers and a rumble of thunder is expected. The best chance of storms will be in northwest Arkansas. However, the storms will be scattered and not everyone will pick up on the rainfall. There is a better chance for rain next Friday and Saturday.
Ross Ellet
Here is a little time lapse of some afternoon thunderstorms that formed north of Clarksville, AR between 550 and 720pm. The best part of the video is just after 10 seconds in and shows a fairly healthy updraft.
Post by Brian Emfinger at 7:45PM on 6/26/09
There is a tropical wave currently over the Western Caribbean Sea, but this wave is not expected to develop into much before it hits the Yucatan Peninsula. What it does after it hits the Yucatan could be very interesting. Gulf of Mexico waters are very warm right now and there is a good chance for increasing tropical development. This is something worth watching over the next several days, but I think early Monday morning is when this system will move into the warm Gulf Of Mexico waters.
TROPICAL MODEL FORECAST
BLOG ENTRY BY PATRICK CRAWFORD (6/26 5:49PM)
The heat will continue for both Friday and Saturday before a cold front will bring some relief on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are also possible with the passage of a cold front.
Here are the surface temperatures forecasted by the GFS computer model. The image is for Saturday at 1pm (not the day’s highs). Notice the area is in the upper 90s (dark red) to low 100s(purple).
Here are the surface temperatures forecasted by the GFS computer model for Sunday at 1pm (not the day’s highs). Notice the area is in the 70s and 80s. Scattered showers and storms are also forecasted.
Ross Ellet
