FREEZING RAIN UPDATE… February 21, 2008

Here is an update on the freezing rain chances for Thursday. The blue line represents a 10% chance for freezing rain. Most of NE OK, NW AR and SW MO are included in the 10% probability for freezing rain. Temperatures look to climb above freezing (32°F) for the afternoon. So the freezing rain chances will be with us early Thursday morning and after sunset Thursday evening. We will have updates all day on the slight winter weather possibilities, so keep on checking the best local weather blog for the very latest weather information.

Thursday’s Winter Weather Update February 21, 2008

The cold air has really taken a slow trek throughout the Ozarks; unfortunately, the computer model guidance has a real tough time with a shallow arctic air mass, and that leaves uncertainty in the forecast. We’re expecting winter weather for Thursday; however, some places like the River Valley and south won’t deal with it until Friday morning. Look at the timelines above for more detail.

The greatest areas for ice will stay across McDonald, Benton, Carroll, and Delaware counties. Here’s what we’re expecting for total ice accumulations.

Remember, Thursday afternoon should be fine with temperatures warming above freezing; the ice totals are more for Thursday morning and evening. Be very careful of bridges and overpasses!

Total Lunar Eclipse Tonight February 20, 2008

There is a total lunar eclipse tonight but more than likely we won’t get to see it due to clouds! The eclipse starts at 7:43PM with the total eclipse phase running form 9:01PM to 9:51PM and then completely ending at 11:09PM. You might sneak at peak at the sky tonight just in case there are a few breaks in the clouds. If we do miss it, the next total lunar eclipse will not be until December 10, 2010. Lunar eclipses (when the earth’s shadow covers the moon) are much more common than solar eclipses (when a new moon glides in front of the sun blocking all or part of it out). The next total solar eclipse for our area is set for August 21, 2017 when around 90% of the sun will disappear. Places along a narrow line from Charleston (South Carolina) to Nashville through Saint Louis and Kansas City will have the sun completely blocked out. Below, the picture on the right is of the August 28, 2007 total lunar eclipse that we saw well and the March 3, 2007 which was visible but low on the horizon.

Freezing Rain Potential….. February 20, 2008

We’ve enjoyed a wonderful afternoon with mild air, but the shallow cold air is sitting just to our north tonight, and it’s heading our way! A large area of high pressure will push this cold air further south, and that will set up the potential for freezing rain late Wednesday into Thursday. Expect falling temperatures throughout the day on Wednesday!

A classic overrunning situation will take shape late Wednesday as our 850 mb winds flow out of the southwest. Temperatures will warm aloft, but that won’t be the case at the surface. The warm air will overrun the cold with this system; we’re expecting surface temperatures to hover right around freezing across NE OK and NW AR, and that’s where problems will occur.

Light ice accumulations could total as much as a tenth of an inch across NE OK and NW AR, which could cause problems on roadways. The River Valley may see some freezing rain on Thursday, but temperatures may stay just above freezing to avoid accumulating ice. We’ll be watching it very closely over the next 24 hours.

LeFlore County Severe Weather Training Tonight February 19, 2008

I want everybody to know there will be another spotter training session tonight at the Kiamichi VoTech in Poteau, OK at 7:00 p.m. The meeting will likely last through 9:00; however, it’s free to the public, and the National Weather Service from Tulsa, OK will train you as a certified spotter.

This is a great opportunity for you to learn more about: storm structure, mechanics, chasing, and severe weather reporting. Please let us know if you become trained; we always welcome your reports!

COLD AIR SPILLS IN February 18, 2008

Presently, there is a strong ridge just off the west coast off the USA. Just underneath though, a cut-off low pressure system continues to churn. This formation of a High over a Low is blocking pattern and deflects the Jetstream. In this case, much of the Pacific flow is going up and over the ridge, sending cold Canadian air into much of the northern plains. Some of this cold air will reach us!

By Wednesday and especially into Thursday, moisture, working in form the Southwest looks to overrun this cold air. The depth of the cold air will not be sufficient for snow, but it will be below freezing in places at the surface. So, some sleet, rain and freezing rain may be in the cards. We’re watching this scenario unfold and will be timing things in the days to come.

TODAY’S WEATHER February 18, 2008

High pressure will be in control of our weather today. That means we will have sunshine early in the day, but a cold front looks to clip our northern counties tonight. When the cold front arrives tonight we can’t rule out a few snow flurries across NE OK and NW AR. Accumulations will be very minimal and we are not looking at any major travel issues Tuesday morning. Warmer air arrives Tuesday afternoon and therefore we are going to experience some very nice weather Tuesday afternoon. Enjoy!

ABUNDANT RAIN! February 18, 2008

Well, perhaps an ARK might have come in handy for a few of you. Many low-lying bridges and overpasses became impassable throughout our area as copious amounts of H2O fell from the sky. A strong area of Low pressure, passing nearly directly overhead was the guilty culprit. Even after most of the precipitation in association with the parent cold front dwindled down late last night, the spin of Low was strong enough to kick up an impressive storm that passed through the River Valley several hours later, containing small hail and some brief gusty winds. This was insult to injury as more rain fell on an already saturated ground.

January was light in the rainfall department across our towns… definitely not the case for February! We look to end the month well above average. Here’s a fleeting thought in the “what if?” category for all of you snow fans: At a stock ten to one ratio of snow to rain, that is ten inches of snow melting down to one inch of rain, some of us would have had nearly three feet!

Some Flooding Pictures February 18, 2008

I visited several area rivers and creeks last night and this morning to see the magnitude of the flooding and here a few pics.

The picture on the left is of a small tributary of the Little Mulberry River overflowing a low water bridge late Saturday night and the Little Mulberry River this morning (Sunday) with some of the road washed away. Both pictures were taken from about 4 miles southeast of Pettigrew (Southern Madison County)

While making the short hike to the High Bank Twins Waterfall I saw this tree that had apparently been blown up by lightning. I had checked the waterfall last Saturday (Feb 9) and this had not happened yet so it must have happened sometime Saturday Night (Feb 16)

You can view many more pictures - HERE

FLOOD SAFETY February 17, 2008

Many areas have already picked up more than two inches of rain. Some areas are approaching four inches of rain. This poses a direct threat to life, limb and property. Pushmataha, Latimer and Leflore County are under Flash Flood Warnings. Please remember to take a different route if flooded roadways block your path of travel. Just a foot and a half to two feet of swiftly moving water is sufficient to “float” pick-ups along with SUV’s. Most weather related deaths occur in automobiles during floods! DO NOT BECOME A STATISTIC. High water will be a threat after rain stops and throughout most of the day tomorrow. Just a half foot of swiftly moving water can knock down a person. Please do not let your children play near flooded creeks and streams.