Looking at the 0Z data, the timing for severe weather remains in line for Thursday morning. As a warm front moves north tomorrow, we’ll see dew points climb into the 50s. More available moisture means a better chance for nocturnal thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
The cap is pretty strong for Wednesday afternoon, so other than a stray shower or two, we’ll be windy and mild. The showers will be aided by strong 850 mb winds aloft and the mountainous terrain of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Southerly winds will move gulf stratus throughout our area on Wednesday, so full on sunshine will be limited. Look for highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s; however, if your area receives more sunshine, expect to see the mercury rise rapidly!
Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats for severe weather by Thursday morning. These storms will move east during the morning hours, leaving Thursday afternoon dry.