The central plains have experienced a decent cap this afternoon, keeping thunderstorms from developing. The cap is the warm air aloft that prohibits air to rise in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Without rising air, thunderstorms can’t build!
The cap is now breaking across central Oklahoma this evening. A trough of low pressure is now swinging trough western Oklahoma, which is now sparking storms across southern Kansas. The storms will likely back build down the dry line and intensify after sundown. Dewpoints continue to rise ahead of the trough, which will help hold the storms together overnight.
Most of the severe activity will stay west of our area this evening; however, after midnight, we’ll expect more showers and storms with large hail and damaging winds. There remains an isolated tornado threat overnight. I’ll have another update before 10 tonight.