7:00 P.M. Severe Weather Update February 28, 2007

The central plains have experienced a decent cap this afternoon, keeping thunderstorms from developing. The cap is the warm air aloft that prohibits air to rise in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Without rising air, thunderstorms can’t build!
The cap is now breaking across central Oklahoma this evening. A trough of low [...]

Quick Severe Weather Update… February 28, 2007

Looking at the 0Z data, the timing for severe weather remains in line for Thursday morning. As a warm front moves north tomorrow, we’ll see dew points climb into the 50s. More available moisture means a better chance for nocturnal thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
The cap is pretty strong for [...]

Deja vu? Similar Pattern…. February 27, 2007

Despite strong wind shear on Saturday, most of the area was spared from nasty severe weather due to the lack of available moisture. Straight line winds did create substantial damage in Spiro, OK, but will we see the same situation for Thursday?
Right now we’re watching a trough over the western United States that will [...]

HOWLING DUST! February 26, 2007

So, can dust howl? Probably not, but don’t tell that to anyone who was in the area late on Saturday. Steady 40mph winds with gusts as high as 60 kicked up a lot of dust and particulate matter and scattered it hundreds of miles. The impressive picture above comes to us courtesy of the Springfield, [...]

HOWLING WINDS February 25, 2007

Gusts in our area have been in the 35 to 50+ mph range for several hours now. The parent storm that brought us the thunderstorms this morning is now pushing into MO. Central pressure with this intense mid-latitude cyclone has been as low as 988mb, and quite possibly lower. Central pressure in [...]

SEVERE STORMS FIRE… February 24, 2007

As of 5:00PM, what were just a few small radar returns have now blossomed into supercell thunderstorms in the central pan handle of Texas. Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued as well as a few tornado warnings.
For our area we’ll look for thunderstorm development after midnight and a threat of severe weather to remain [...]

Latest Severe Weather Timing… February 23, 2007

The latest 0Z run has us in the severe weather window for Saturday morning into the early afternoon. I’m afraid that central and eastern Arkansas will really be under the gun for dangerous storms throughout the Saturday evening time frame.
Large hail and strong damaging winds throughout the area remain the most likely severe weather [...]

JETSTREAK FOCUS February 23, 2007

The picture with the dark blue and violet wind arrows shows how air behaves when it passes through a jetstreak. Breaking up the jetstreak into four quadrants, the following air- flow characteristics develop.
Right entrance region: upper level divergenceLeft entrance region: upper level convergance
Right exit region: upper level convergenceLeft exit region: upper level divergence
This is [...]

Severe Weather Thoughts…. February 22, 2007

The latest model information has come out, so now it’s time to update the timing for severe weather. I want to remind people that the most ideal time for severe weather and tornadoes is during the late afternoon and early evening; however, given the strong dynamics with this spring-like storm, overnight severe weather will [...]

ACTIVE, ACTIVE, ACTIVE… February 21, 2007

Saturday’s set up is still on track and developments are being monitored closely. This will likely be a very long day in the weather center and out in the field. Dynamics with this storm still look most impressive and at this point if we destabilize with long breaks of sun late morning and into the [...]