The Model Trend, COLDER!
I have looked over the 0Z data, and the NAM model continues to take a colder approach to this midweek system. I have included my latest precipitation forecast map, now, it may not look like a lot of changes were made, but let me explain….
I moved the “dusting to an inch” designation further south throughout LeFlore and Scott counties. With the colder solution, I needed to adjust the position of the totals. Now, I want to see if the next two runs support the cold temperatures aloft. If they do, I will likely need to add more accumulation across the River Valley. At this point it may need to bumped up between 1 and 2 inches. I verbally mentioned on my 10 p.m. broadcast that those totals may need to be higher.
I feel good about totals across NE OK and NW AR. I think it’s safe to say that a swath of 2 to 4 inches will be very common north of I-40. Some locally higher totals could be an issue, but the majority of that area will see several inches of snow. I’m sure the National Weather Service will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for most counties north of I-40 on Wednesday, but my hunch is that they will hold off on any warnings. I think we all remember the Weather Service during the last event, so I suspect they will continue with more of a conservative approach.
More light snow looks to be an issue for Friday as another wave rolls across the area. We’ll watch for an additional dusting to an inch for Friday. More to come.
Meteorologist Justin Povick will have another update Wednesday morning. Let it Snow!