5:30 Update… January 31, 2007

Snow continues to fall across all of NE OK and NW AR. Many locations have already picked up over an inch of snow. The snow will continue to fall through 7 p.m. An additional .25″ to 1.00″ will be possible this evening. We’ll see a lot of the moderate snow taper [...]

Latest Update…3:30 January 31, 2007

Here’s our latest thinking on snowfall totals. I have increased most of northwest Arkansas to 2 to 4 inches of snow. Portions of Benton county into NE OK may see between 3 and 5 inches of snow by the end of Thursday. Travel continues to get worse, as snow is falling all throughout the [...]

Winter Update…. January 31, 2007

The River Valley into SE OK is reporting roads that are becoming slick and hazardous, especially along the bridges and overpasses. Over the next couple of hours look for light to moderate snow to continue, likely covering the roads and creating issues. 1 to 2 inches is still a good bet by Thursday [...]

Here’s the Latest January 31, 2007

Roads all across NW AR and NE OK are becoming slick and hazardous. Snow has been accumulating on roads, creating numerous accidents. The State Police discourage travel in Benton county at this time due to the amount of car accidents. Between 1/4″ to 1/2″ of snow has already accumulated north of [...]

The Model Trend, COLDER! January 31, 2007

I have looked over the 0Z data, and the NAM model continues to take a colder approach to this midweek system. I have included my latest precipitation forecast map, now, it may not look like a lot of changes were made, but let me explain….

I moved the “dusting to an inch” designation further south throughout [...]

Winter Weather Update…. January 30, 2007

The computer models are starting to trend more to a colder solution. Which model do you choose, the NAM or GFS? The GFS is wetter than the NAM, but the NAM nailed the last winter event, so I’ll stick with persistence for this next system for Wednesday and Thursday.

Sleet and snow are possible toward [...]

Latest Thinking…Wednesday-Thursday Storm System January 30, 2007

It has been very interesting watching the models since last week. The GFS has been hinting at some sort of winter storm for about the last 7 days now, and now the models are starting to come into some sort of agreement. The GFS and the NAM are similar with the timing of the precipitation. [...]

Closed Lows, Dynamics & A Chilly Week! January 29, 2007

Forecast models have a tough time handling closed Lows. Put that Low over the Pacific, like we presently have and the lack of real data available over water makes modeling solutions that much weaker. That being said, confidence in the long range forecast remains less than grand. The one certain thing is [...]

Winter Weather Update…. January 27, 2007

Bottom line, temperatures will really drop late Saturday night into Sunday. On Saturday, a wave of low pressure will provide the lift for some light rain across SE OK and SW AR, with a wintry mix likely throughout NE OK and NW AR. Precipitation amounts look to be fairly light, mainly a few [...]

SNOW LATE NEXT WEEK!? January 26, 2007

It’s always wise to jump off of something solid and real versus a computer model. So what does that mean exactly might you ask? Well, in the world of weather forecasting there’s both real and simulated data, the later which is often referred to as “the models”, in weather office lingo. The above [...]